Is India’s neighborhood set to get even more dangerous?

Indrani Bagchi

Hamid Karzai, president of Afghanistan, threw out two Britons – Michael Semple and Mervyn Patterson- for allegedly bribing Taliban leaders in Musa Qala, Helmand, where British troops were fighting – not always to advantage.

Karzai, apparently enraged that the British were paying off the Taliban behind his back and demanding that these "leaders" be accommodated in the Afghan government, refused to comply, and in the face of British displeasure, expelled them.

Semple, said security officials in Afghanistan, is probably best described as the Afghanistan-Taliban brains trust for the UK's MI6, its external intelligence arm. In a re-run of the 19th Century 'Great Game' adventurers, Semple has been a prime advocate of 'reintegration' and 'reconciliation' with the Taliban as a key strategy to win the war in Afghanistan.

His background is equally interesting – Semple's father was a general in the British army and his wife Yamima's father, General Mirdha, a buddy of former Pakistani president Yahya Khan, putting him on an inside track to military-intelligence decision makers in Pakistan. The idea of wooing over softer Taliban leaders and quelling Pashtun anger isn't new or novel. Today, it is largely Semple's doctrine of 'reconciliation' that's driving the present British-led initiative to sift the 'good' Taliban from the 'bad', and bring the 'good' into the tent. It's a line that Pakistan has pushed, leveraging the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and army's deep contacts with the Taliban. Islamabad is peddling a promise, once betrayed in 1996 when the group overran Kabul, that the Taliban could be persuaded to control violence and create a backdrop that would allow the West to make a face-saving exit from Afghanistan. Alongside, the Taliban could be persuaded to be a replacement for Karzai, despised by Pakistan and slowly disgraced in Washington.

LONDON MOVE STUNS INDIA

The Afghanistan conference in London last week was a shocker for Indian mandarins who had hoped to muscle in and get a larger say in Afghan policy given the money and effort New Delhi has put into the reconstruction efforts. But what happened was that India got blindsided by the British swallowing the Pakistani line that Islamabad could deliver peace by negotiating a deal with the Taliban. Shivshankar Menon, the new national security adviser, along with foreign secretary Nirupama Rao, is leading a massive review of India's own Af-Pak policy, which will determine not just India's approach to Afghanistan, but also craft out a new policy of engagement with Pakistan. The announcement on Thursday of resumption of foreign secretary-level talks between New Delhi and Islamabad is a movement in that direction.

Pakistan has pushed hard to remain in the driver's seat on Afghan policy. And, at least for now, it appears to be winning by hard-selling the line that without the involvement of the ISI, re-integration will remain a non-starter. That was evident first at the Istanbul Af-Pak meeting leading up to the January 28 London conference , where Pakistan insisted India be kept out of the talks, and even a feeble attempt by Karzai to get India to the table was brushed off. India fretted and fumed impotently, but found itself completely dealt out of the game by Pakistan and the UK leading the charge, letting Karzai announce that he was going to draw his brothers back into the tent, and requesting the Saudis to mediate a 'reintegration and reconciliation' with the Taliban.

This was only formalizing a process that had started in 2009, when the Taliban leadership had met with the Afghan government in the desert kingdom . These meetings broke the ice, even quietly blessed by US special envoy to Af-Pak , Richard Holbrooke. After the London conference, Saudi envoy to India Faisal Tarab told Crest in a carefully worded comment, "We are ready to mediate with the Taliban, but we will not talk to terrorists." Saudi King Abdullah has just met Karzai and the outcome of that conversation could determine the success or otherwise of the proposed venture.

For India, global approval of the reconciliation process implies Pakistan, with its ISI and army, is likely to take a leading role. As Holbrooke told MK Narayanan, who was till recently NSA, and Nirupama Rao quietly during his last visit a couple of weeks ago, Pakistan has worked itself into a paranoia about India's presence in Afghanistan; India would have to be removed from all decision-making on Afghanistan, they insisted. As London showed, Islamabad got its way.

For the US and UK, even though India's assistance programme punches all the right buttons, India had to be sacrificed . Therefore, when British foreign secretary David Miliband was asked about India's role, he hummed and hawed saying "by and by" . In London, India insisted on putting in phrases like the process should be "Afghan-led" and "transparent and inclusive" – words to prevent the British and Pakistanis from controlling it. But as every diplomat understands, these are words than cannot , and indeed, will not be enforced.

The Pakistani demand has been succinctly laid out by Munir Akram, one of its top diplomats: "Pakistan's cooperation should be offered only in exchange for tangible and immediate US support for Pakistan's national objectives: an end to Indian-Afghan interference in Baluchistan and FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas); a Kashmir solution; a military balance between Pakistan and India; parity with India on nuclear issues; transfer of equipment and technology for counter-terrorism ; unconditional defense and economic assistance; free trade access."

KARZAI CORNERED?

Steve Coll in his book Ghost Wars recounts an event in the life of Hamid Karzai that bears repetition, because it might be instructive even today. In 1999, when his father, Abdul Karzai, a respected Pashtun tribal leader, made an overture to Mullah Omar against al-Qaida, he was gunned down by the Taliban leader's henchmen in Quetta, Pakistan.

The man is now being pushed into dealing with his father's killers on an equal footing. A weakened, sullen Karzai has been battered into submission in a game where a lot of money ($500 million, $140 million of it in 2010) will be thrown at yet another attempt to win over the Taliban. US officials told Crest that while they maintain a healthy skepticism about flipping the Taliban, the US is not entirely dismissive of the fresh initiative either. This is as much to keep the British by their side as a reflection of the fact that there are serious doubts about the success of the US military strategy in Afghanistan.

The pragmatist that he is, Karzai has been half-way down this path before. In 2004, after Karzai won his first presidential election, he held out an olive branch to the Taliban, in a 'reconciliation' exercise. This was called Tahkim-e-Solh (Strengthening Peace). Established in May, 2005, it tried giving Taliban not guilty of criminal activity a way to return to society. It did not work, because the process was imperfect, the reintegration did not happen in many cases, the payments were delayed or not made at all. Since most were neither provided security nor money, they soon returned to the Taliban, which was more lucrative. Officials say that will be fixed, because the US-UK duo will now control the funds. But Gen David Petraeus (who's credited with the success of the coalition forces in Iraq and now heads the US central command) is skeptical. "If you have an area that is insecure to begin with, then it is difficult, though not undoable, to guarantee security for somebody who wants to come in from the cold."

CAN INDIA PROJECT HARD POWER?

Afghanistan and its future will prove to be India's real test as a regional power. For the past decade, India has successfully turned itself into a huge presence and influence peddler in Afghanistan – through its biggest-ever use of soft power: roads, hospitals, schools, scholarships, community development projects. India's financial commitment in Afghanistan is upwards of $1.2 billion. Opinion polls put India's popularity rating among Afghans at 71%, in extreme contrast to only 2% for Pakistan.

India has refrained from using hard power in Afghanistan, and, in many ways, the Indian presence is guaranteed by the US' security role. As soft-power author, Harvard University's Joseph Nye says, "Achieving transformational objectives may require a combination of both hard and soft power." Soft power is only credible when it is matched by or surpassed by hard power. India is paying the price, because, beyond a point, roads and dams don't help buy influence. As one top-level Afghan official said, wryly, "We love India, but we fear Pakistan. That is a stronger emotion." India's power projection in Afghanistan has been primarily by showing its "goodness" . Pakistan, on the other hand, negotiates with the world with a gun held to its own head. That, as India has discovered several times in its history, is far more persuasive.

For the moment, Pakistan has the upper hand, because both the UK and US need it more than ever. Pakistan is playing an adroit diplomatic game of chicken with the US – and winning. Islamabad may be hopelessly dependent on Washington's money, but that doesn't stop it from refusing to give visas to US officials, refusing money that comes with 'conditions'. Pakistan has made it clear it will not stop supporting the Afghan Taliban; there is absolutely no attempt to tackle al Qaida; and Mullah Omar's Quetta Shura functions unimpeded. In short, it holds veto power over whether the Obama surge succeeds in Afghanistan. Washington, said an Indian official scornfully, is "kowtowing to Pakistan just like they did to China."

Harsh perhaps, but this view is prevalent in the upper reaches of the Indian government – to the extent that even the PM is believed to have remarked that if India and Pakistan have another fracas, Washington may not weigh in on India's side.

According to high-level officials in New Delhi, a successful Taliban reintegration is another term for a Taliban takeover in Kabul. "Look at Yemen and you see the Afghan future. If and when that happens, we may be looking at a pre-9 /11 situation," said one of them.

Will Karzai survive? Unlikely. But if he is to avoid the kind of fate that befell Afghanistan's president Mohammed Najibullah – who was tortured and strung up from a light post by the Taliban in Kabul in 1996 after the Soviets withdrew – Karzai needs new and improved survival strategies. These must include working out deals with warlords – tribal leaders who can help him survive the Taliban – because despite everything, the average Afghan still prefers the present government to the harsh rules of the Taliban. He can't look to the UK, US or Pakistan for help. He can look to India. Will India step up to the table? This would entail getting our hands dirty. So far, India has shied away from a robust security role in Afghanistan.

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Analysis: the worsening relationship between America and China

A year ago, American hopes were high for a friendly relationship with China. But the White House seems unwisely to have raised expectations – the Chinese have been consistent in their unwillingness to change positions on key issues.

By Alex Spillius in Washington and Peter Foster in Beijing

American President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao reach out to shake hands after a press conference at the Great Hall of the People American President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao reach out to shake hands after a press conference at the Great Hall of the People Photo: AP

One year ago, Hillary Clinton chose China as her first foreign destination as Secretary of State and offered her hosts a fulsome vision of relations with the United States.

Upholding human rights was no longer a priority for Washington, but co-operation on trade and climate change were. Barack Obama, keen to avoid displeasing the Chinese, declined to meet the Dalai Lama shortly before the US president's own debut in Beijing, where he too extolled the range of common interests shared by the two powers.

Twelve months on, Mrs Clinton is berating China (and others) for creating a new "information curtain" on the internet to rival the Iron Curtain of the Cold War era, and stoutly supporting Google in its dispute with the Chinese authorities over hacking and censorship. Mr Obama has approved a $6 billion arms sale to Taiwan, China's tiny nemesis which has been self-governing since 1949, and will soon be meeting the Dalai Lama, symbol of another sovereignty tussle over Tibet.

Americans, asked to explain this transformation, might say that the Chinese have offered nothing of substance to back up declarations of amity. They have not budged on their refusal to agree tougher sanctions on Iran. And they were instrumental in blocking a new climate deal at Copenhagen, where they snubbed Mr Obama by sending a junior official to a meeting in place of Hu Jintao, China's president.

But to the Chinese, the US president appears to have reneged on promises in November's joint statement of the two countries to concentrate on mutual interest and ignore intractable differences. China's leaders detect deliberate provocations from the Obama administration. They believe the Google row could have been limited to a trade issue but the White House chose to maximise its political impact.

China had also been prepared for a new round of US arms sales to Taiwan, but was surprised and angered by the extent of the package. Chinese analysts have said the package grew in recent weeks to include helicopters and two minesweepers.

"The Chinese government is very angry," said Professor Shi Yinhong, a leading expert on Sino-US relations at People's University in Beijing.

"They see Obama as sacrificing last year's real improvements in China-US relations for domestic political reasons."

The White House, perhaps naively, seems to have overvalued the effects of the president's personal charm. It seems to have been surprised that the Chinese have not moved Iran, the weakness of its currency which is hampering a rebalancing of the global economy and issues such as censorship.

But China has been consistent. It feels that the Americans raised expectations unwisely, particularly in advance of Copenhagen, where Mr Hu refused to accept international monitoring of carbon emissions.

Beijing will overcome its anger over the Taiwan deal – it restored military ties soon enough after retaliating to a similar sale by George W Bush – but it now views Mr Obama as inconstant, even weak.

"It's not just what Obama has done, but the manner of his doing it that has so enraged the Chinese government," added Prof Shi. "By being so quick to violate this bilateral agreement he is seen as unreliable and not statesmanlike."

Washington's options from here are limited. China holds most of America's $12.4 trillion debt and American consumers are hooked on cheap Chinese products. Beijing's growing muscularity seems to reflect a belief that the US needs China more right now than the other way around.

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'Bangladesh risks becoming failed state' - Maj. Gen. (Rtd) Muniruzzaman

Bangladesh faces such "total destabilisation" from climate change by 2050 that it risks becoming a failed state, a retired Bangladeshi general has warned. The low-lying river delta nation of 156 million is expected to lose up to 17 percent of its land area to rising seas by 2050, displacing at least 15 million people, according to a U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report.

But it is Bangladesh's other risk factors - the lack of a social safety net, a weak government with a history of corruption, a fast-growing population and neighbours hostile to the idea of accepting refugees - that threaten to turn an international environmental crisis into an international humanitarian and security disaster, said retired Maj. Gen. Muniruzzaman, president of the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies.

Bangladesh "will become a humanitarian catastrophe beyond comprehension," he warned in a telephone interview. "The ability of the state to manage such a crisis does not exist. The capacity of the institutions of the government is very limited. When they're faced with a problem beyond their abilities, we could see a state collapse," he said.

Bangladesh, a south Asian nation widely seen as among the most vulnerable to climate change, has in recent years become the focus of a range of security studies and war game role-playing scenarios at military institutes, universities and think tanks around the world.

Most look at the potential security implications if tens of millions of displaced Bangladeshis try to surge into already overcrowded neighbouring India, which is now in the process of completing and electrifying a 2,500-mile-long barbed wire fence it is erecting along the border of the two countries.

"India is not in a mood or a position to absorb a climate refugee population. It will quite naturally end up in conflict," Muniruzzaman warned.

MILITARY PLANNING

Such potential crises are being increasingly incorporated into military planning around the world, including at NATO. Starting on Thursday, climate issues are expected to have a high profile during The Security Jam, a Brussels-based international web conference on security issues hosted by the Security and Defence Agenda, a Brussels-based think tank.

"The security dimensions of climate change are only now beginning to sink into people's heads," said Muniruzzaman, who only uses one name. "Up to now it has been a humanitarian issue."

Climate-driven displacement is already well underway in Bangladesh. Rising seas and worsening storm surges have permanently submerged half of Bhola Island, a formerly 6,400-square-kilometre delta island at the mouth of the Meghna River, and displaced an estimated half-million people.

Many have ended up in the overcrowded slums of Dhaka, the national capital, competing for scarce jobs. Open land is now so difficult to find in Dhaka that many slum-dwellers live crammed into rickety huts erected on poles over the capital's waste-choked rivers.

As more and more migrants push in to join them, "it is creating a problem of social pressure, law and order," Muniruzzaman said. "People are so vulnerable to poverty, lack of nutrition, lack of economic opportunity. They become unemployed and homeless. That's dangerous in any situation."

In a nation with no social security net, "the capacity of the state to manage such a large refugee population does not exist," he said.

POPULATION TO DOUBLE

Bangladesh, one of the most densely populated nations on earth, has made huge strides in recent years in curbing its birth rate, reducing its total births per woman by half. But even a small rate of increase in an already huge population, means the nation is expected to see its population double to 300 million by 2050.

That suggests "we may be creating a climate refugee population of anything from 25 to 30 million, and that may be a modest figure," the retired general said.

India - with its long historical ties to Bangladesh - is a natural destination for those refugees, the general said. But India's government, already struggling to provide for what it says are 20 million Bangladeshi economic immigrants now living in India, has made clear it cannot accept climate refugees.

"Our Indian friends are very categorical. They say we are not in a position to accept anyone across the border and I don't think they have the capacity to accept them," Muniruzzaman said.

Perhaps most troubling, Bangladesh's government - troubled by a decades-long history of corruption charges and elections marred by allegations of vote-rigging - has limited capacity to manage the coming crisis, Muniruzzaman said.

"The political elites don't have a comprehension and understanding," he said. "They're looking at how to hold onto power the next five years. We need visionary long-term thinking."

What it all suggests, he said, is that "we could very easily see a state collapse. The international community has to factor in such scenarios."


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Analysis: Bangladesh and the big ones

As regional and international relations take on a fresh perspective in the global scenario, where does Bangladesh stand? In the present day matrix of global interactions, interdependence is the name of the game. All too often, though, the "inter" part of interdependence is obfuscated and the "dependence" part comes to the forefront. This is a cause of concern for the people of developing nations who find themselves caught up in the whirlpool of international political networking, and Bangladesh is no exception.

Make or break

Bangladesh is perched at a critical juncture of its existence, where fitting into the global jigsaw is as important as its hold on 'sovereignty'. Given its strategic location on the Bay of Bengal and its proximity to both India and China, along with significant presence of mineral resources both on and off shore, Bangladesh is certainly not just an overpopulated poverty-ridden third world country. In recent years it has shown potential for palpable socio-economic growth, despite political ups and downs and natural calamities, and today it stands on the threshold of change. It's "make or break" time, say analysts.

At this crucial point in time, it is the Awami League government which holds the reins of the nation. Riding the power on "winds of change", it has raised people's expectations high. However, the expectations are tinged with a degree of apprehension when it comes to international relation, regional relations in particular, as the Awami League government and its leader Sheikh Hasina, are yet to rid themselves of the pro-Indian label. Whether founded or unfounded, this stigma is there. Even if other governments have been accommodating to India's demands, somehow it is Awami League which always bears the brunt at home if the neighbour's overtures are too strong for comfort. And Sheikh Hasina's recent Indian trip, along with the deals signed during the visit, has given more grist to the mill; speculations run amok.

US-India nexus

Pundits of South Asian affairs in recent times have been watching with interest the strengthening nexus between India and the United States of America. This alliance, holy or unholy as it may be perceived, is a reality stretching from Afghanistan down to Myanmar and beyond. Bangladesh finds itself caught up in this plexus of interests and experts call for a honing of negotiating skills to ensure national interests are not sacrificed at the expense of others. "It's a matter of give and take, and we must make sure we take as much as we give, or at least get the best deal on the table," says a regional expert, discussing the present predicament of the country.

Now that US-India ties are cemented in no uncertain terms, the relationship equations in Bangladesh have taken a new turn. While leftist leaders have long cried themselves hoarse against "US imperialism", they may find themselves faced with a confusing conundrum to contend with. Rather any overt presence as feared by many (in the shape of US marines swarming all over the place à la old Hollywood movies), the US is likely to use its regional ally India to do its job here.

India, over the past years, has grown in stature and clout and all indications are that the US is very much behind strengthening India as a regional power. If India has the ability to emerge as economic and strategic super power in the region, and it is proving so, it has full blessings and backing of the US. After all, India has all the features which the US values – democracy, economic strength and more. In fact, among the emerging powers of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China), India enjoys a strong reputation for democracy.

Analysts contend that the US is giving India leeway regarding Bangladesh. Whether it is its business interests or otherwise, it finds it more expedient to utilize India's services in this regard. After all, India and Bangladesh share a multitude of commonalities in culture, methods of business and transactions, etc. It is not as if the US is giving up its interests in Bangladesh, say analysts, it has long being eying the gas, oil, coal and other mineral resources of the country, as well as the deep sea port and more. It is likely to work to this end through consortiums with India and thus ensure its interests in Bangladesh.

The US also wants to see a consolidation of Bangladesh's image as a moderate Muslim country. It has always portrayed Bangladesh in this light. This is perhaps a departure from the Indian propensity to identify Bangladesh as a haven for "Islamist militants" or "terrorists". But the US realizes that the sheer homogenous nature of Bangladesh's demographic composition is unique – to a greater extent it enjoys one language, one religion and one culture.

Confirming US interests in Bangladesh, there are reports that US President Barack Obama is likely to visit Bangladesh at the end of this year or early next. This will be on the last leg of his scheduled visit to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. He has reportedly met with seven Congressmen in the US concerning Bangladesh. Three points are supposed to have been highlighted during this meeting – Bangladesh's possible role as a moderate Muslim country; the relationship between the present government and Nobel Laureate Professor Muhammed Yunus; national unity and to what extend democracy is actually being practiced in the country. In the meantime, the Awami League government is lobbying hard to ensure Obama's visit to Bangladesh. If he does actually come, all pending issues between the US and Bangladesh will be finalized prior to the visit.

Inscrutable China

In the meantime, China may be maintaining its characteristic inscrutable silence, but it has its eyes wide open where regional developments are concerned.

If there had traditionally been more than a degree of coldness and tensions between China and the US, things have relaxed to a great extent. Trade relations have stepped up and the vibes between the two powers are more positive than they have ever been in the past. However, it is not the same story where India and China are concerned. Tensions prevail and relations are strained. The borders between the two are more often than not on alert.

It is the animosity between India and China that had made India all the more determined to strengthen its position in Bangladesh, whether through transit, use of the port, trade facilities or more. The US, on the other hand, would rather maintain its cordial bilateral ties with China. If interests conflict, says analysts, there is always India to do the needy. "With India and the US," elaborates the analyst, "It's a sort of 'you scratch my back and I'll scratch yours' kind of deal."

However, the equations may not be all that simple. India and the US may have conflicting agendas in certain areas where Bangladesh is concerned. India's actions concerning its insurgency-ridden northeastern states added to its present understanding with the Bangladesh government, may well result in a backlash in Bangladesh. The situation in Bangladesh could grow volatile and India has always propagated the idea of Islamist terrorism in Bangladesh. The US, on the other hand, is not against the Islamic forces in Bangladesh, be they Jamaat-e-Islami or other Islamic groups which represent the nation's moderate stand. They want to see a Muslim majority sans the stigma of terrorism.

Observers of the region feel that China is none too pleased with recent developments between Bangladesh and India. It is not happy with the position India is assuming in the region either. If its interests are threatened or hurt, China is not one to sit back and lick its wounds. Its power should not be underestimated. It is a dark horse, but has proven to the world that it is a force to contend with. And if India flexes its muscle in that direction, say analysts, China will show India exactly how powerful it is. The US, in the meantime, will be friends to all and reap the benefits.

Hasina's government is also aware that proximity with India may rub China up the wrong way. This is not something that Bangladesh can afford. To appease the Chinese, Bangladesh is reportedly already planning all sorts of trade and business deals with China. Perhaps the construction of the deep sea port may also go to China. Other big infrastructural contracts with China are also in the pipeline.

The Myanmar factor

Another interesting development in the region was the recent tensions between Bangladesh and Myanmar. The maritime boundary issue had loomed large on the scene as casus belli, the cause of possible war being Myanmar's claim on nautical territory which Bangladesh considers its own. India has similar claims on the waters in the bay, territory rich in mineral resources. But as Indian influence grew in Myanmar and even the US took a softer stance regarding the Myanmar military junta, the border tensions defused. Some regional experts feel that India had stepped up pressure on Bangladesh, even through Myanmar, but released the pressure as it was getting what it wanted. Others see US intervention, as it has its eyes riveted on the oil and gas blocks in the bay and Bangladesh is its best bet.

Discontent

Meanwhile, within Bangladesh itself, discontent brews. Nationalist forces are going blue in the face crying foul over the deals with India. Their slogans about Bangladesh being sold out may sound like a broken record of clichés, but when the business community begins to protest, it is time to take notice.

The trade deals and business agreements between India and Bangladesh have not made the business community happy this side of the border. There is a distinct sense of apprehension that the domestic market is going straight to the hands of Indian businessmen and industrialists. As it is, Bangladesh's poultry sector has been hit hard. If other sectors fllow suit, the discontent may be manifest in more vocal and violent terms.

Dilemma over democracy

Despite degrees of dissatisfaction here and there, all seems to be going hunky dory particularly where the US-India collaboration is concerned. And the present government in Bangladesh, already in India's good books to all apparent appearances, seems also to be winning kudos from the American side too.

However, the US has one particular concern and that is the matter of democracy. Whether through war or peace, the US has always prided itself as the champion of democracy. So when it comes to Bangladesh, it will be vigilant in its watch on democratic practice in the country.

But just how is democracy faring in Bangladesh? Antagonism continues to brew between the ruling party and major opposition BNP. BNP remains away from the parliament and the government is hardly offering them an olive branch. In the meantime, government quarters talk of a ban on religion-based politics, meaning a blow to Jamaat-e-Islami. A prohibition on Jamaat may well lead to an aggressive outburst. It won't take much for its younger activists to turn from moderation to militancy.

The US will not condone any such detraction from democracy. It has always maintained that if democracy is to survive, a robust opposition must be allowed to flourish. But will the Awami League government allow a forceful opposition to grow? And how will India view a consolidated nationalist opposition waiting in the wings for the next election? Analysts say that they would want to see the present government at the helm for another term at least, to ensure a continuity of their agenda implementation. But what about the US determination for democracy? Despite the intentions and the agenda, there is no foolproof guarantee that all will go according to plan. After all, "the best laid schemes of mice and men" are often known to backfire.

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12-nation naval wargame from February 4

The Indian Navy displays a naval fleet exercise at the Bay of Bengal in Chennai on January 24, 2009.

India will host the largest four-day naval wargame, Milan-2010, involving 12 nations in the Asia Pacific region from Thursday, in which means to counter terror threats to coastal and island territories would be debated keeping in mind the attacks in Mumbai.

"There would be a discussion (during Milan-2010) on maritime terror and the means to counter the attacks like what happened in Mumbai," Assistant Chief of Naval Staff (Foreign Cooperation and Intelligence), Rear Admiral Sudharshan Shrikhande told reporters here on Monday.

The seventh edition of the biennial Milan, being organised by the Indian Navy at Port Blair since 1995, would have nine naval ships from eight countries and representatives from four others participating in a tabletop exercises, apart from a passage exercise at sea and a seminar on humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) from February 4 to February 8.

"The amount of patrolling required for preventing the 26/11 type of attacks in other countries too is the same as in India. So, these issues will be discussed," Rear Adm. Shrikhande said to a query in this regard.

Among other issues to be discussed would be illegal entry of foreign ships into the waters of the respective countries, just as India had experienced when a North Korean vessel anchored off Andaman and Nicobar Islands last year and had to be apprehended.

Naval ships from Australia, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore (two ships), Sri Lanka and Thailand, with representatives from Navies of Brunei, Philippines, Vietnam and New Zealand would join the exercise.

A seminar on 'Navies in Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief' would be addressed by Indian Naval Chief Admiral Nirmal Verma and inaugurated by Andaman and Nicobar Lieutenant Governor Lt Gen Bhopinder Singh.

India will be represented by four or five ships including its largest Landing Ship Tank and a Fast Attack Craft in the exercise.

Australia would bring its warship HMAS Glenenelg patrol boat for the wargame.

However, there would be no fire power demonstration during the wargame, he said.

"Milan, which started as a small effort with participation from Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Indonesia, has today grow into a 13 navies grouping in the Asia Pacific. Only Cambodia will not be attending this time.

Indian Coast Guard too will send its ships and officers for the exercise," he added.

"The message from the grouping is one of need for maritime cooperation for navies to share knowledge and expertise on their own operational circumstances and to know each other's operating procedures so that there can be coordinated efforts in times of need," Rear Adm. Shrikhande said.

He said already Indian Navy was coordinating with Indonesia and Thailand for a structured joint patrol along each other's maritime borders for about two or three times a year.

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FLASH: Bangladesh executions may force Canada not to deport Toronto suspect

 

 

Nur Chowdhury is wanted by Bangladesh for the assassination of the country's founder, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, and the killing of 27 others in a military coup in 1975.

Thursday's execution in Bangladesh of five men convicted of killing the country's "founding father" in 1975 may force Canada to reject calls to deport a Toronto resident also has been found guilty — and sentenced to hang — for his alleged role in the assassination plot. Bangladeshi officials have been pressuring Canada to hand over Nur Chowdhury, a former army officer accused of firing the fatal shots in the August 1975 coup that left then-president Sheik Mujibur Rahman dead, along with a dozen others caught in the crossfire at the presidential compound in the capital Dhaka.

Chowdhury and several other suspects had left Bangladesh by the time the alleged plotters — some in custody, others deemed fugitives and living abroad — were convicted of the killings and sentenced to death in 1998.

Now living in Toronto, the 59-year-old Chowdhury has been challenging a Canadian deportation order on the grounds that he will be put to death if returned to Bangladesh. Canada, which abolished capital punishment in 1976, requires foreign nations to guarantee that any suspect extradited or deported from this country will not be subject to the death penalty for alleged crimes committed abroad. Last month, Citizenship and Immigration Canada told Canwest News Service that Chowdhury's fate would be determined in part by whether his deportation would result in certain death or only the "mere possibility" of a hanging.

But Thursday's executions of Chowdhury's alleged co-conspirators send a clear signal about the fate that could await him if he's sent back to his home country.

Bangladeshi Law Minister Shafique Ahmed visited Canada in November to push for Chowdhury's deportation. He vowed after Thursday's executions that all of those convicted of killing Rahman will be brought to justice eventually. He also told reporters in Dhaka that the Canadian government supports Chowdhury's deportation and that "only the legal formalities are pending now" before his return to Bangladesh.

But Ahmed added that Chowdhury and the others found guilty in the assassination case — all of whom were tried in absentia more than a decade ago — will have the opportunity to appeal their convictions.

The death penalty has been a contentious issue for Prime Minister Stephen Harper, whose government lost a Federal Court lawsuit last year over its refusal to seek clemency for Canadian-born killer Ronald Smith, now on death row in the U.S.

"In cases where the death penalty is a possibility, the government will seek assurances from the country to which the person is being returned that, if found guilty and convicted, the death penalty will not be imposed," a Citizenship and Immigration spokesperson told Canwest News Service in December.

Prevented by privacy rules from discussing details of Chowdhury's case — which the department has acknowledged involves a "complex" combination of immigration law and international diplomacy — a spokesperson explained at the time that a deportation review panel must assess "whether there is more than a mere possibility that the person will face the death penalty" before issuing a ruling.

On Thursday, CIC spokesperson Karen Shadd added that Canada's "pre-removal risk assessment" for potential deportees "evaluates whether a person would face persecution, torture, risk to life or risk of cruel and unusual treatment or punishment" if sent to face charges in another country.

Apart from the fact that Chowdhury has already been convicted and sentenced to death for the 1975 killings, and that five executions have now been carried out in connection with the deaths, the case is further complicated by the fact Rahman's daughter is currently serving as Bangladesh's prime minister.

Sheik Hasina Wajed was visiting Europe 34 years ago when her father was assassinated and several other family members were killed in the coup d'etat. With Wajed now holding one of Bangladesh's most powerful political posts, Canada is in a particularly difficult position as it decides what to do with her father's alleged killer.

Bangladesh's high commissioner in Ottawa, Yakub Ali, said in December that Chowdhury "committed a heinous crime" and should be deported.

Chowdhury arrived in Canada in 1996 after a lengthy career as a Bangladeshi diplomat under the post-Rahman regime. He was granted visitor status on July 5, 1996, and soon after filed a refugee claim — the same year that Wajed first became prime minister of Bangladesh and vowed to bring her father's killers to justice.

Chowdhury's first refugee hearing was held in 1999, and he faced a string of defeats beginning in 2002, when his application was initially denied, court records show. He was again denied in 2004, 2005 and 2006. But Chowdhury was not immediately sent back to Bangladesh by Canadian authorities because he faced the death penalty in his home country, according to a 2004 fax message sent by Interpol Ottawa to the Canada Border Services Agency.

The message, filed in Federal Court, said: "If there's a change of policy in Canada or Bangladesh regarding the sentencing, the subject may be extradited then."

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Bangladesh: The Executions of Sheikh Mujib's Killers and its aftermath

The completion of trial of the accused in the murder case of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the founder president of Bangladesh, and the execution of the five detained convicts at the early hours of Thursday are expected to heal, to a great extent, the emotional wounds of the surviving members of Mujib;s family and thousands of his followers, caused by the extrajudicial killing of the man who had politically led the final phase of the country\s struggle for national independence. But it would still take time to heal the wounds the extrajudicial murder had caused to the country's political process. The murder, after all, decisively distorted the country's democratic process, the growth of which had already been deterred by the government of Mujib that abruptly introduced one-party rule and imposed ban on oppositional political exercises, activities and expression of dissents included.
 
The murder of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was not a criminal offence of ordinary nature; it was rather an act of political misadventure, said to be supported by local and foreign forces, having serious implications for the nation for the years to come. The murderers and the politicians that they had chosen to govern the country after the dethronement of Mujib, most of whom were freedom fighters and very close to Mujib and his family, also explained the incident to the people, home and abroad, as a political action, arguing that it was politically important to remove Mujib from power for the sake of multi-party democracy, for pluralism, et cetera, and that there was no way left to politically oust him from power as he had banned all oppositional political activism. The murderous political changeover had received passive political support of the people.

True, the one-party autocratic rule was not the objective that the country's people had fought the liberation war for, but the extrajudicial murder of Mujib and the extra-constitutional takeover of power by Mujib\s old political comrade Khandaker Mushtaque Ahmed did not facilitate democracy in the country. Rather, it paved the way for a series of martial law regimes that ruled the country with the fundamental rights of the citizens remaining suspended for years, regimes that distorted the country\s political process in many ways, introduction of the process of lateral entry of the businessmen, civil and military bureaucrats into different rungs of the hierarchy of the political leadership being a crucial one. The experience proves, once again, that democratic resistance, with people's active political participation in it, remains the only constructive solution to autocratic governance of any ideological orientation.
 
However, the political backgrounds and the perspectives of the murder did not surface in the court of law at any point of the long process of the trial, nor did the issue of alleged involvement of foreign quarters in the murder come up, thanks to the silence kept about these from both the sides - the plaintiff and the defendant. So, it was an ordinary trial of an extraordinary offence committed in an extraordinary political circumstance. It can, therefore, be argued that the trial and punishment of the murderers may heal the emotional wounds of Mujib's followers, but it would not automatically heal the distortions that the murderous incident had caused to the country's political process. For it to happen, society would require threadbare discussions and informed debates on the political events leading to the murderous political misadventure, its political and cultural consequences and the ways of freeing our history from the political hangover that the misadventure had caused 34 years ago. The political debates over the murderous ouster of Mujib regime, after all, would not be buried with the burial of the bodies of the convicts.

Meanwhile, the government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, daughter of the slain Mujib, has a political obligation to meet. Hasina has claimed in the past, over and over again, that the extrajudicial murder of Mujibur Rahman has initiated the politics of murder and vengeance in this country, and non-holding of the trial of the murderers has been standing in the way of the establishment of the rule of law. Now that the trial has been ended and the murderers executed, it is Hasina's turn to take political moves that would effectively help put an end to the politics of murders and vengeance and establish the rule of law in the genuine sense of the democratic ideal.

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Technology: Apple vs. Obama

When the White House announced that President Obama would deliver his State of the Union message on Jan. 27—the same day Apple was planning to unveil its new tablet computer—many of us at  cringed. "What is Obama thinking?" one of my colleagues joked. "He's going to be totally overshadowed."

The idea of a product rollout trumping the president's annual speech to Congress does seem funny. Maybe the tablet will be a bust. Maybe Obama will rock the world. But the opposite is at least as likely. This isn't Obama's fault. It's just the way the world is going: Technology, as a driver of social change, is overtaking politics.

Look around the globe. One of every three people in China now uses the Internet. The same is true in Iran. Hundreds of millions of users are on Facebook, often communicating across borders. Four billion people now have mobile phones. India has nearly 400 million; Bangladesh has another 50 million. And phones are getting smarter. Apple has sold 50 million iPhones and iPod Touches. Another 25 million people use BlackBerrys. In the United States, the number of text messages sent each month has passed 100 billion.

How powerful is wireless communication? Consider this: Three years ago, we upgraded the software of two vehicles on Mars. On Earth, we're mobilizing people and solving problems at unprecedented speed. Last month, the U.S. government put 10 red balloons in random places around the country and challenged contestants to find them. The winning team, using social networking, succeeded in less than nine hours.

Gadgets have swept the world before, but mobile computing devices are different. Through applications and upgrades, they can acquire new powers. Apple alone offers more than 100,000 apps and has delivered more than 2 billion downloads. Phones are becoming maps, TVs, libraries, shopping tools, video cameras, car keys, and credit cards.

In more and more places, machines are running the world. On stock exchanges, high-speed computers armed with trading algorithms and superior pattern recognition are thrashing human competitors. Airline autopilots have become so reliable that human pilots can check out. In cars, software is beginning to assume responsibility for steering, braking, and parking. Drones are patrolling our borders, catching humans who try to sneak in. Computers are telling child-welfare agencies whether to take kids away from parents. Programs are running "virtual call centers," measuring the output of dispersed salespeople and routing customer phone calls to the best performers. Computers don't just work for us anymore. We work for them.

Thanks to connectivity and mobile devices, terrorists can do more harm. Scouts in Europe use the Internet to recruit jihadist warriors for Iraq. Insurgents in Afghanistan use cell phones to detonate bombs. A year ago, terrorists slaughtered scores of people in Mumbai with the help of BlackBerrys, satellite phones, GPS, aerial image files, and voice-over-Internet-protocol. But networked devices also help us thwart such plots. In Pakistan, remote-controlled CIA drones hunt al-Qaida and Taliban commanders. U.S. military strategists are laying contingency plans for cyberwar. There's even an iPhone app being developed to help soldiers monitor enemy positions.

Networks also multiply our power to help each other. Through the Internet, African entrepreneurs are obtaining microcredit loans. People in developing countries are using phones to research candidates and monitor elections. Doctors in India are diagnosing patients in Ethiopia. In the week after Haiti's earthquake, a campaign for $10 text-message donations to the Red Cross raised $25 million. That's 2.5 million responses.*

In cyberspace, a new world is unfolding. People are paying real money—$5 billion a year, by some estimates—for avatars and other virtual products. Google has just patented a system for selling ads that would appear as billboards and posters not in the physical world but in the cached online world of Google Street View. And Israel, one of the world's most hard-nosed countries, recently released 19 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for video of a captured Israeli soldier. The deal wasn't for the soldier. It was for the video.

What happens in Vegas may stay in Vegas, but what happens online has real effects. Drivers engrossed in cell phone calls and text messages are crashing real cars and killing real people. Meanwhile, millions of Americans have married or developed long-term relationships with people they met online. People are dead, and new people have been born, because of what happens in cyberspace.

Over the long term, politics can't compete with technology's power. Look at Obama's latest proposals to make college more affordable. They're a pittance compared with the cost-cutting force of online education. Millions of Americans are taking college courses through the Internet for $200 per credit or less. MIT, the Princeton Review, and other heavyweights are extending this option to more people here and abroad.

Or look at medicine. While Obama struggles to cut costs, the health care industry is engaging networked monitoring devices, tracking software, and two-way video cameras so that doctors can supervise more patients in less time. Better yet, the latest wireless implants allow doctors anywhere in the world to look directly at what's going on in your body. The same goes for surgery. Last year, doctors in this country removed 80,000 prostate glands indirectly, by operating consoles that control surgical machines. Insert a broadband connection, and those surgeries can be done remotely.

Politics can harness technology and sometimes influence it. Obama owes his election in part to digital microtargeting, online network-building, and a list of 13 million e-mail addresses. But more often, technology overwhelms politics. Around the world, information networks are shaking the foundations of authoritarian regimes. In Iran, cell phone cameras have exposed state brutality [warning: violent imagery], and e-mail chains have relayed incriminating videos out of the country. In Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova, tweets and text messages have mobilized mass protests.

Governments are trying hard to control this technology. And they're failing. Flash drives, memory sticks, and smuggled satellite dishes have foiled Cuba's efforts to block Internet access. Egypt, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Thailand have resorted to old-fashioned arrests, hoping to intimidate dissidents they can't isolate online.

The most aggressive censors, China and Iran, use filtering software to monitor Web content and block sites they don't like. China also has an army of human censors 40,000 strong. But no army or great wall can stop a viral epidemic. Through downloads, e-mails, and instant messages, troublemakers abroad continue to supply Chinese and Iranian citizens with software that lets them sneak out. By routing their queries and messages through foreign proxy servers, these citizens can see and communicate with the outside world. Their bodies are trapped inside their nations' firewalls, but their minds roam free.

Will the Apple tablet overshadow Obama? I don't know. But here's my bet: If January 2010 ends up being remembered for a political speech, it won't be Obama's. It'll be the speech Secretary of State Hillary Clinton delivered Thursday. Clinton denounced Internet censorship around the world as an "information curtain" akin to the Iron Curtain of the Soviet era. She championed the "freedom to connect"—an updated, online version of freedom of assembly. And she outlined a place for politics in the march of information technology. "On their own, new technologies do not take sides in the struggle for freedom and progress," she observed. "But the United States does. We stand for a single internet where all of humanity has equal access to knowledge and ideas."

That's a pretty good manifesto for the next century. We don't have to be bigger than tomorrow's machines. We just have to teach them and their users to play well with others.

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FLASH: Sheikh Mujib Murder Verdict - All five convicted Army Officers hanged

Dhaka, Jan 28 All five captured Bangabandhu murder convicts have been hanged, with A K M Mohiuddin being the last to walk the gallows. Bazlul Huda and Mohiuddin Ahmed (artillery) were the first two to be executed minutes after Wednesday midnight, according to one of the officials overseeing the process.The next to go were Syed Faruk Rahman and Sultan Shahriar Rashid Khan.

bdnews24.com correspondents say they heard slogans in Old Dhaka and Mirpur as hundreds of onlookers were out on the streets throughout the capital as well as on rooftops near the Central Jail.

Five ambulances arrived just after midnight and were parked outside the Central Jail as preparations were on to execute the five convicts within hours of the president rejecting the last mercy petition late Wednesday evening.

Police and elite RAB were guarding all roads leading to the Central Jail in densely-populated Old Dhaka, with a four-layer security blanket around it.

Prisons guards, RAB, armed police and Metropolitan police formed the layers near and around the Nazimuddin Road jail, according to chief correspondent Sumon Mahmud.

Police chased away a group of slogan-shouting people when they marched through an alley as senior officials began arriving.

The home secretary arrived at 11:25pm Wednesday at the Central Jail Gate in Dhaka, preceded by just five minutes by a police car carrying a number of coffins, putting to rest all speculations about executions of the five. The Dhaka civil surgeon. district magistrate and additional district magistrate had entered the Jail at 10:30pm.


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Bangladesh-India: Mending Fences

Mending fences

by John Cherian

During Sheikh Hasina's visit, India and Bangladesh signed five agreements, including treaties on tackling terrorism and cross-border crime.

KAMAL KISHORE/PTI

UPA CHAIRPERSON SONIA Gandhi, President Pratibha Patil and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh with Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina at the Rashtrapati Bhavan on January 12. Sheikh Hasina was awarded the Indira Gandhi Prize for Peace, Disarmament and Development on the occasion.

BANGLADESH Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's first official visit to India after the Awami League regained power in December 2008 has been hailed as a significant success in both New Delhi and Dhaka. The visit, which took place in the first week of January, has, according to officials and most commentators, marked "an end to the mutual distrust" that had long characterised relations between the two countries. Sheikh Hasina said it presented a "historic opportunity" to build a "new and forward-looking relationship" between the two countries.

However, she conceded that Bangladeshis still harboured suspicions about their big neighbour India. She told the media that if the agreements signed during her trip were implemented, then these suspicions would fade away "as common people want a better life".

There are a lot of issues that still divide the two countries, ranging from the sharing of river waters to the demarcation of border, both land and sea. Bangladesh has complained to the United Nations about the claims of India and Myanmar on the maritime boundary demarcation in the Bay of Bengal. The area is rich in oil and gas deposits. Multinationals are already prospecting for oil in the Bay of Bengal.

Sheikh Hasina has emerged politically stronger after being in the wilderness for many years. She was even briefly jailed during the quasi-military rule that followed the term of the previous government, which was headed by her arch rival, Khaleda Zia.

Her political rivals were decimated in the 2008 general elections. The Awami League, founded by her father Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, won a two-thirds majority in Parliament. The smaller anti-India parties, such as the Jamaat-e-Islami, were politically decimated. Khaleda Zia's Bangladesh Nationalist Party is facing a vertical split.

Sheikh Hasina, during her second stint in office, has the advantage of a decisive mandate and a splintered opposition. This time around she seems determined to make tough choices on the domestic and foreign policy fronts. Most of those involved in the assassination of her father and immediate family members have been brought to book after years of delay.

She has also taken a tough stance on home-grown Islamist militancy. Many of her close associates, including former Finance Minister A.M.S. Kibria, have fallen victim to militants. She herself narrowly survived an assassination attempt by militants four years ago.

The Indian government, as a token of its high regard for the Bangladesh leader, gave her the prestigious Indira Gandhi Prize for Peace, Disarmament and Development. In a speech delivered on the occasion, Sheikh Hasina said that the award "greatly honours my country and my people".

During her visit, the two countries signed five important agreements, including treaties on tackling cross-border crime and combating terrorism. "Terrorists do not have any religion or country and are giving a bad name to Islam, which symbolises peace," she said. Sheikh Hasina reiterated during her visit that Bangladeshi soil would no longer be used by groups inimical to India.

Prior to her visit, the Bangladesh government handed over Arabinda Rajkhowa, the senior United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) leader, and four other separatists to India. More than 200 rebel fighters have reportedly fled their sanctuaries in Bangladesh. Many have since surrendered to Indian authorities.

Bangladesh, on its part, has been complaining about the presence of rebel groups on Indian territory. The secessionist Santi Bahini is active among the tribal people in the hill tracts of Bangladesh. Dhaka has been alleging that the Indian authorities are providing sanctuary and training for separatist groups intent on breaking up Bangladesh.

During Sheikh Hasina's visit, New Delhi made a commitment to provide a $1-billion credit line to improve Bangladesh's infrastructure. This is the highest amount of aid given by India to any country so far. Much of the money will be used to improve the railway network and dredge the 50-odd rivers shared by the two countries.

Women personnel of the BSF patrol the India-Bangladesh border in West Bengal. The two countries share a 4,096-km border, and Dhaka's complaint is that many border issues are yet to be sorted out.

The Indian government has also made a commitment to supply 250 megawatts of power to Bangladesh from its national power grid. It has offered to look favourably into Bangladesh's demands for duty-free access for its goods into India. The country has a huge trade deficit, amounting to $2 billion, with India. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee indicated that India was going to allow duty-free access to certain Bangladeshi products on a priority basis. Dhaka assured New Delhi that it would encourage Indian investments in Bangladesh.

Indian investments in Bangladesh currently stand at a paltry $12.5 million. The Tata group had to scrap a $3-billion deal for a power and steel project at the eleventh hour a few years ago because of political compulsions. Sheikh Hasina, during her visit, met with the captains of Indian industry and encouraged them to look at Bangladesh as an investment destination.

New Delhi is particularly interested in the construction of a 950-km Myanmar-Bangladesh-India gas pipeline. With India now agreeing to allow Nepal and Bhutan to ship their goods through its territory to the Bangladeshi ports of Chittagong and Mongla, Bangladesh may be better disposed towards the pipeline project. There are many contentious issues that are yet to be sorted out. The latest, relating to water sharing, has to do with India's decision to build a dam on the Barak river in Tipaimukh in Manipur. Sheikh Hasina told reporters in New Delhi that she was happy that no work had started on the proposed dam. Indian officials assured her that New Delhi would not do anything that would affect the interests of its neighbour.

Successive Bangladeshi governments have complained about India building dams on rivers flowing into their country. The dams have led to excessive flooding during the wet season and acute paucity of water during the summer. Bangladesh is yet to reconcile fully to the Farakka Barrage, built by India on the Padma river. A national outcry is bound to erupt if India goes ahead with the construction of the Tipaimukh dam.

The two countries share a 4,096-km border, along which are 51 Bangladeshi enclaves. Dhaka's complaint is that the border issues have not been sorted out despite the Mujib-Indira Pact of 1974. India, complain Bangladeshis, has not bothered to ratify the treaty or implement its key provisions such as the transfer of the "Teen Bigha" corridor, which is under Indian control.

The Bangladeshi enclaves occupy more than 7,030 acres (one acre is 0.4 hectare). The people in these enclaves live in terrible conditions, with severely restricted access to water, roads, electricity and other essential supplies. Six and a half kilometres of border along the Tripura-Comilla border still remain undemarcated.

Bangladeshis also complain of the Border Security Force (BSF) using its firepower indiscriminately. Since 1990, more than a thousand civilians on the Bangladesh side of the border have been killed. Some BSF soldiers and Indian nationals were killed in exchanges of fire along the border in early 2000.

There are reports suggesting that the Indian government has agreed in principle to reach a comprehensive settlement with Bangladesh on the border issue. The short stretch of border that is still undemarcated will be formally delineated. New Delhi also plans to build a flyover connecting the Bangladeshi enclave of Angarpota-Dahagram to the mainland. The enclave is separated by the Teen Bigha corridor.If there is constructive agreement between India and Bangladesh, the entire South Asian region stands to gain. And if Bangladesh is allowed to trade directly with the seven north-eastern States, it will help reduce the considerable trade imbalance between the two countries.

If the mutual suspicions that have characterised relations between the two countries for decades can be put on the back burner, the new-found bonhomie can be a turning point not only for bilateral relations but also for the economic and political well-being of the region.

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FLASH: Execution of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman's assassins to be completed by 31st January

The executions of five former Army officers, sentenced to death for the 1975 killing of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, will be carried out by Jan 31, law minister Shafique Ahmed said after a meeting with the Inspector General of Prisons following the Supreme Court's dismissal of the condemned men's review petitions on Wednesday.

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Bangladesh: Accord with India brews up a storm

Speakers at a discussion yesterday alleged that accords with India signed during the recent visit of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina hit the base of independence and sovereignty of the country.

Addressing the discussion on 'Prime Minister's India Visit: Evaluation', organised by Sammilito Peshajibi Parishad at the Institution of Diploma Engineers, Bangladesh (IEDB), they said India signed the deals, which go against the interest of the country, to use Bangladesh to control its north-eastern region people who were fighting for independence and also to contain China.

These accords must have to be withdrawn; otherwise people will resist the implementation of them.

Engineer Mahmudur Rahman, convener of the parishad, presided over the programme which was addressed, among others, by Prof Dr Emajuddin Ahmed, Columnist Farhad Mazhar, former pro VC of DU AFM Yusuf Haider, Barrister Aminul Haque, former IEB president Engineer ANH Akhter Hossain, Press Club president Shaukat Mahmood, Journalist Ruhul Amin Gazi and MA Aziz, Agriculturist Anwar-un-Nabi Majumder, DU prof Dr Aminur Rahman Majumder, Principal Selim Bhuyan and Engineer Harun-Or-Rashid.

Dr AZM Zahid Hossain, Member Secretary of the parishad, moderated the function.

Dr Emajuddin Ahmed who addressed as chief guest, said that Bangladesh was forced to enter into the security block of India through the security deals with India.  He said, these accords could hamper the internal security of Bangladesh. He was sharply critical of the prime minister for giving advance support to India for UN Security Council.

Terming the accords as security and military treaty Farhad Mazhar said, India signed the deals, which go against the interest of the country, to use Bangladesh to control its north-eastern region people who were fighting for independence. He said, Bangladesh would not be able to present its any crisis at international forum if India became the member of UN Security Council. But it is regretting matter that the prime minister had already expressed her support to India, he said. Farhad Mazhar alleged that India wants to make Bangladesh as its battle field changing its military plan in the context of Maoist upcharge, Muslim-Maoist relation and independence movement of north-eastern region.

Mahmudur Rahman said, the accords are nothing but the extension of the treaty of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman on May 26, 1974 which hit at the base of the country's independence and sovereignty.

Earlier, Shukat Mahmood in his keynote paper said 'we want to connect with the globe including India but not sacrificing our sovereignty and independence'.

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Nepal: Frosty welcome for India

by Dhruba Adhikary

Those who rule India from their power base in Delhi may not be wrong to view Nepal as their closest neighbor as well as ally, but whether the denizens of this largely mountainous country sharing a northern border with China - through Tibet - agree to such a perception has been a contentious issue ever since the British left the subcontinent in 1947.

Although the Treaty of Peace and Friendship, concluded in July 1950, sought to institutionalize the assertive posture Delhi thought it had inherited from its colonial masters, the Nepalis have consistently challenged this pact, describing it as an unequal treaty from the very day it was signed. The treaty has often been compared with the pact the Soviets imposed on Finland in 1948.

The people of Nepal, although ethnically diverse and politically polarized, have always been against what they perceive as Delhi's bullying behavior. This week has been no exception.

First, Indian External Affairs Minister S M Krishna was greeted with black flags by those protesting against encroachment into Nepal's border regions. While Krishna's consultations with government leaders were to contain India's offer of assistance to Nepal during its current democratic transition, his meeting with the top Maoist leader, Pushpa Kamal Dahal (popularly known as Prachanda), was utilized to deliver a tough message to restrain anti-Indian rhetoric used to promote Nepali nationalism.

The customary joint press statement, issued on January 17 in Kathmandu at the end of Krishna's three-day visit, restricted itself to alluding to "age-old, multifaceted relations" between the countries. But Krishna's office in New Delhi released a separate statement saying the visiting minister "conveyed deep disappointment at the baseless attacks on India by the Maoist leadership". This statement is indicative of the tough talks that Prachanda had with Krishna.

The Maoist party Prachanda leads commands 40% of the seats in the 601-strong Constituent Assembly, which is working on a new constitution expected to be promulgated by May 28 this year.

Krishna's warning was not taken too seriously, as was evident at the start of the four-day visit to Nepal of the Indian army chief, General Deepak Kapoor, starting on Tuesday. He, too, felt the heat from the outset at Kathmandu airport.

Over a dozen Maoist cadres were detained for several hours for waving black flags at the Indian visitor. On the same day, Maoists staged a rally and held a public meeting in front of the Indian Embassy. One of Prachanda's deputies, Narayankaji Shrestha, told the audience that while the Maoists were in favor of maintaining normal, neighborly relations with India, what they opposed was Delhi's continuous interference in Nepal's internal affairs.

India officially always denies allegations of interference, but there have been occasions when such claims have proved true. One such occasion was in June 2006 - shortly after the April uprising against king Gyanendra's absolute rule. An Indian parliamentary delegation visited Nepal, and one of delegates, S Sudhakar Reddy, observed after returning home: "Nepal is at the political crossroads and should be allowed to decide its policies independently without any intervention." He did not mince words over where the interference was coming from. "Keeping in view the past experiences with Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, it is better that we keep away from the internal affairs of that country."

Unlike Nepal's other political parties, the Maoist party has displayed skill at winning over the public and arousing a sense of nationalism. The leadership has explained that it has no quarrel with India as a country and its people; its confrontation is with the rulers in Delhi representing the political elite, bureaucracy, defense establishment and intelligence agencies.

Kapoor's name surfaced precisely in this context. In a fiery speech he gave on the last day of a three-day nationwide general strike on December 22, Prachanda asked how the Indian army chief could "publicly advise" Nepal's army chief, General Chhatraman Singh Gurung, to reject a proposition aimed at integrating former Maoist combatants into the national army. (These combatants numbering nearly 20,000 are sheltered in United Nations-supervised camps.)

It is a sensitive subject and is under official negotiations in line with peace accords signed ending the decade-long Maoist insurgency (1996-2006). There are serious apprehensions that if the integration issue is not resolved fairly, the whole plan for promulgating the new constitution on time might not be achieved. Nepal could face a constitutional crisis of an unprecedented nature.

After quitting the premiership last May amid controversy regarding his decision to sack the then army chief, Prachanda has toured various parts of the country, telling the people about Delhi's excesses with regard to Nepal. The issues he has chosen to raise include Nepal's notorious and mysterious palace massacre of June 2001, which claimed the lives of king Birendra, his queen and the crown prince. Echoing the perceptions of a section of the population, he said the monarch was killed for being a nationalist. Prachanda has also alluded to the death of another firebrand nationalist leader, Madan Bhandari, 16 years ago.

Kapoor's remarks to the media came at a New Delhi reception during his Nepali counterpart's tour of India in December. Although the Nepal army and its ministry did not react to Prachanda's objection, the Indian Embassy found it expedient to clear the air on the eve of Kapoor's reciprocating trip to Nepal. His remarks, an embassy press release said, did not "reflect the government of India's position" on the issue of "PLA integration" in Nepal army. The Maoists' annoyance was further exacerbated when their cadres intercepted a caravan of military vehicles "quietly" entering Nepal. This led them to accuse the Nepal army of importing weapons that could be used against them, defying provisions of the peace accords. Later, it was officially clarified that the fleet of 100 vehicles were carrying non-lethal equipment from India.

Indian media reports have said that New Delhi has been embarrassed more than once by Kapoor's publicly aired thoughts. A seminar speech in which he spoke of two-front war against China and Pakistan was one such occasion.

MK Narayanan, until recently India's national security advisor, has also influenced political events in Nepal in recent years. Weeks before Nepal went to the polls in April 2008, he appeared on television saying that India favored the Nepali Congress party and its leader, Girija Prasad Koirala. This prompted other political parties to be apprehensive about Indian designs on Nepal. Narayanan's statement left room for speculation that Delhi had had a hand in the sudden creation of new regional parties in the southern plains bordering the Indian states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh just a few months before the constituent assembly election.

That Narayanan, who worked as the chief coordinator of India's intelligence agencies, was involved in matters relating to Indian policies towards Nepal surfaced in a recent article in an Indian newspaper. "The Maoist menace at home and the mess in Nepal bear further testimony to his sterling abilities," said a reporter from The Pioneer in a January 17 piece reviewing Narayanan's performance.

In the initial years of Nepal's political crisis, which was accentuated by the royal coup in early 2005, Delhi, Washington and London used to consult Kathmandu to find a durable solution. But, over time, both Washington and London perhaps thought it wise to "outsource" the job to Delhi. And Delhi's political masters apparently found it useful to depend on the works and reports of agencies headed by persons like Kapoor and Narayanan.

Is India alone to be blamed for the political crisis in Nepal? Experienced politicians admit that it is often the Nepali side which, unwittingly or otherwise, leaves space for India to intervene. One such person is Prakash Chandra Lohani, a former foreign minister. Some of the politicians have gone out of the way to "invite" interference, he recently told a radio interviewer.

Who then bells the cat? Maoists claim they can, and they think they actually have. Regardless, Nepal is entering a crucial phase ahead of the May 28 deadline for issuing the new constitution.

Dhruba Adhikary is a Kathmandu-based journalist.

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Commentary : Democracy In Bangladesh: Reality Vs. Utopia

by Manirul Islam

From the very beginning in post-liberation Bangladesh, the political progress had been murky and was marred with violent rivalry and blood spilling strife. Pro-liberation forces splintered into hostile camps which helped mighty resurrection of just defeated anti-liberation forces. Theory of conspiracies, both within and beyond the boundary, against the new nation was abound.

The obvious difference surfaced among the freedom fighters in Indian training camps, mostly between Bhasani loyalist ultra left and other group loosely under the command of exile government. After liberation this difference widened and transformed into armed hostility between pro-government and ultra left insurgency. While war was raging, Mao followers defined our liberation war as 'fight between two dogs'. Bhasani followers like Haq, Toaha, Matin, Alauddin, Siraj Sikder were initially building a 'Jana Juddho' in occupied territory against invading army. But Mao's theory immediately inspired them to change their war strategy and instead of Pakistani army, they started killing Muktijoddhas allegedly to fight Indian grand plan of colonizing Bangladesh. After liberation Bhasani's foot soldiers, for nine months maintained surreptitious liaison with Maoist 'Naxalite' insurgents in West Bengal, crossed the border and joined the comrades in arm right away.

During this time frame a dramatic development took place in international politics which shook the world – US China Détente. This alliance had immediate and far-reaching adverse impact on anti-imperialist struggles and national liberation movements in Asia, Latin America and Africa. In Bangladesh, the immediate effect was devastating and it has been lingering since. Unity forged by liberation war started crumbling down and the war-ravaged nation started drifting into an ominous unsettling political future. Ultra left camps, now having no ideological inhibition, generously opened the door to recruit ultra right defeated armed collaborators of Pakistani army. This alliance eventually germinated a new formidable political force in Bangladesh which would reverse the course of the nation including it's 'Bangalee' identity.

Soon after returning to free country dissension within pro-liberation mainstream power base became conspicuous between left-of-center leadership and simmering far left young radicals.

Sirajul Alam Khan with enigmatic political shadow, allegedly having past liaison with external power which started in 1962 in forming 'Nucleus', emerged as the leader of left radicals. In 60s, Ayub Khan, the martial law dictator of Pakistan, under the influence of his nationalist, young and vibrant Foreign Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, was rapidly inclining toward China and other socialist countries for cooperation and national development. USA wanted to punish this misdemeanor of old ally by fueling political unrest in Pakistan, with main focus in East Pakistan. Political facts and equations logically suggest that 'Nucleus' was the proliferation of that American strategy and was created under supervision of CIA. In 1972 the congregation of the large mainstream renegades led by Khan formed military alliance with existing far left extremists and far right collaborators of Pakistan and declared armed struggle against the nascent government. The government was overwhelmed by the magnitude of national reconstruction and significantly weakened by the wave of conspiracy, corruption, betrayal of bureaucrats and explosive situation in the army. 'Red to oppose red' adopting this theory 'Gano Bahini' the armed wing of Khan later worked as a tool to kill indiscriminately freedom fighters in Bangladesh army through series of mutiny and coup d'état.

Political government's one of the most fatal errors was to reinstate civil and military bureaucrats repatriated from Pakistan. In Pakistan, bureaucracy is groomed and honed as a sophisticated tool to kill democracy and as a vehicle of military rule. Military staffs are trained to grab state power and perpetuate martial law. Soon all the important top slots of the civil services were filled up by the repatriated bureaucrats. By the end of 1973, the picture of the Bangladesh Army became utterly dreadful. With the reinstatement of about 20,000 repatriated army in every layer of our armed forces, the poorly trained military recruits of liberation war became struck minority, isolated and misguided. The rumor mill started churning inflammable rumors in army barracks on issues like privileged Rakkhi Bahini and neglected army, Islam replaced by secularism and Hinduism, India is plundering natural resources, etc.

Within government growing influence of conservative rightists and distance with patriotic leaders of liberation war was another indicator that Government was plunging into the web of conspiracy. As the events were spiraling out of control, in desperation Government formed BAKSAL with unanimous participation of pro-liberation political forces and other professional organizations. Under BAKSAL, government interfered into democratic rights of the opposition forces and clamped control over press and publication. Kissinger's infamous definition about Bangladesh as 'A bottomless basket' became sacred mantra to the opposition forces to turn public opinion toxic against the government.

Project was finalized to topple political government. Military would lead the team with famous sector commander of liberation war, after liberation superseded by a junior officer for prestige army chief position, General Zia would be behind-the-scene moral guardian of the operation. Colonel Rashid with right wing Awami League leader and a close confidant of Mujib, Mushtaq would spearhead execution of the project. In the wee hours, considered to be the sacred time to the Muslim faithfuls, on 15th August 1975 Bangladesh military achieved success through unprecedented mayhem and reached President's palace 'Bangabhaban' wading through blood of revered leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and members of his family including handicapped brother, women and child. An unsettling chapter of post-war politics closed to open a new chapter in the dark of the night.

Zia emerged on the center stage and took control of leash of power soon to change the course of politics. He legalized 15th August massacre through constitutional indemnity. Then he changed thousand years old identity of the nation from 'Bangalee' to 'Bangladeshi'. He rehabilitated faith based Islamic politics and welcomed back all the Islamic leaders from exile. He swore to make politics difficult for the politicians. Instant success made him an instant leader as Saudi Arabia and other gulf emirates, Pakistan and China recognized Bangladesh and opened the floodgate of monetary and logistic help for a brand new political start. Ultra left communists and ultra right faith merchants gathered around Zia in the march towards a new political future. Bangladesh Nationalist party BNP was born. Zia has long gone physically and his family has taken over the reign of BNP. Various military rule often stages fresh comeback to power and is always paused by violent popular resistance. But the obstinate enunciation of Zia still resonates in the air as politics is becoming more and more difficult and inaccessible to public.

In the present context, third stake holder of state governance, Bangladesh army has already organized couple of spectacular stage show bringing two leaders of the main feuding parties for photo session followed by exchange of scanty pleasantries. On each occasion ivory-tower intellectuals and talk-show savvy civil society epitomized joint smile of two ladies and sang chorus in unison 'our democracy sways, spring is not far behind'. In reality, democracy crawls for life in the political wilderness of Bangladesh while third party is busy proving the banality of smiles and in-efficacious democracy.

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Manirul Islam is a freelancer, writes from Toronto, Canada.

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Indian Air Force Offers facilities to Bangladesh

Bangladesh President Zillur Rahman
with Air Chief Marshal Pradeep Vasant Naik
in Dhaka

The Indian Air Force is offering the Bangladesh Biman Bahini (Bangladesh air force) the use of its facilities to modernise and maintain fighter aircraft and helicopters, a senior defence source told The Telegraph here. In reaching out to Dhaka with an offer to help upgrade its air fleet, New Delhi is stepping into an area in which Bangladesh has been dependent mainly on China and, to a limited extent, on Pakistan, Russia and the US.

Air Chief Marshal Pradeep Vasant Naik, currently in Dhaka on a week's visit that began on Saturday, offered the use of Indian Air Force facilities in meetings with the chief of the Bangladesh Biman Bahini, Air Marshal S.M. Ziaur Rehman.

The IAF is understood to have offered to liaise with defence public sector company Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), Bangalore, to help modernise Bangladesh's MiG-29 aircraft and Mi-17 helicopters. The IAF flies and has upgraded the two aircraft for its own fleet. HAL is engaged in upgrading India's own MiG-29s. This is the first visit by an Indian Air Force chief to Bangladesh in more than five years. The last such visit was in 2004. But the Bangla air chief was here in April 2009.

Military-to-military relations with Bangladesh have been resuscitated since the visit by the Bangladesh army chief in February 2008. An IAF source pointed out that while Bangladesh had mostly Chinese and some American-origin aircraft, it also had a squadron of MiG-29aircraft. Nearly 70 per cent of Bangladesh's flying fleet is aged, with the fighter aircraft being 20 years old or even more than that. Bangladesh has taken help from China and Pakistan for its A-5 and A-7 Chinese-origin aircraft. But the Indian Air Force has said that the facilities for its Mi-17 helicopters (the IAF flies the transport helicopter in large numbers), the MiG-29 and the Antonov 32 could be spared for Bangladesh's limited air force. Bangladesh flies three AN 32s and 14 Mi-17s.

In Dhaka, Air Chief Marshal Naik has met President Zillur Rahman and was scheduled to meet Sheikh Hasina on Wednesday. He has also met the three chiefs of the armed forces. "The main focus of the visit will be on improving bilateral relations, promoting defence ties, outlining further areas of defence co-operation between the two countries and resolving pending issues through dialogue and understanding," the air force source said.

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Analysis: India's Opening With Bangladesh

by PHILIP BOWRING, New York Times

India has for so long been obsessed with the security of its north-western frontier and relations with Pakistan that issues on its eastern borders have been neglected. But various events are forcing New Delhi to focus on some interrelated security challenges in the east and northeast. So the four-day state visit to India by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wazed of Bangladesh that began Sunday has an importance far beyond the ceremonial.

While geography alone makes Bangladesh highly dependent on its giant neighbor, India is beginning to appreciate that bullying Bangladesh makes other problems worse. In reality, both nations have security and economic issues that require cooperation.

Three particular issues have brought home.India's eastern vulnerability. The first is China's newly confrontational stance over its claims to much of the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh. China regards these areas as part of Tibet. That in turn links to the second issue: separatism in some of India's seven northeast states. The insurgency in the largest state in the region, Assam, may now be at least as troublesome as that in Kashmir. China does not at present appear to be helping the insurgents but clearly has the potential to do so.

One cause of these tensions is the third issue: the relative lack of development in the region, including nearby eastern Indian states such as Bihar and Jharkhand, which has spawned the growing insurgency. The Naxalites, radical communists who have informal links to the Maoists recently in government in Nepal, have become a major threat to the state, killing officials and disrupting rail traffic. Bangladesh may be a poster state of poverty but it has been outshining neighboring Indian states in social development.

The election of Sheikh Hasina last year has opened an opportunity for cooperation with India to which Delhi needs to respond generously. Her Awami League has long been seen as less suspicious of India than the rival Bangladesh National Party of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia. She has bought some Indian good will by arresting and handing over to India the chairman of the separatist United Liberation Front of Assam. Her government is also seen as less likely to turn a blind eye to Islamic militants.

But for her own credibility she must get something meaningful in return if good relations with India are to be a vote winner at home. Top of the Bangladesh wish list is a reduction in trade barriers that contribute to a 10-to-1 trade advantage in India's favor. But Bangladesh in turn needs to be more open to Indian investment generally and development of its gas industry in particular, which have long been stymied by nationalism and corruption. Likewise both countries have long hurt each other by impeding transit rights and thwarting the full use of rail and river links that date back to British rule.

India also has been frustrated by Dhaka's unwillingness to be a conduit for piping Myanmar gas to energy-short eastern India. Indeed, oil and gas exploration in the Bay of Bengal is frustrated by lack of agreed boundaries between Bangladesh, India and Myanmar.

Even more fundamental issues need to be addressed. Bangladesh's biggest security issue is water. It has legitimate worries about Indian plans for dam building on shared water resources that are the lifeblood of all of Bangladesh and much of northern India.

Can the two cooperate for mutual benefit — and to oppose any plans China, the source of many of these rivers, has to divert them for its own use? Indeed, given the depth of Chinese influence in Myanmar and its fostering of relations with Bangladesh, it is surprising that India has not made more effort to treat its neighbor with respect, not condescension. But a new chapter in relations between two nations that share so much culture, language and history could be opening if Delhi responds to Sheikh Hasina's visit with the generosity and leadership that should be expected of the regional power.

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India: Female BSF Troopers on Bangladesh Border

By Aditi Bhaduri

Indian women have made history since September by holding combat positions along the country's difficult border with Bangladesh. Some of the new recruits say it was tough getting the job, but so far they like the work.

BONGAON, India. The clear blue sky with twirls of white clouds rises above lush green fields while a soft wind blows. It is a quiet and picturesque spot in the southern region of the eastern Indian state of West Bengal. But Rita Chakla, 23, is not there for sightseeing. That's obvious by her military fatigues.

Chakla, and some 500 young women with her, made history in September by becoming the country's first female combatants in the Border Security Force or BSF.

Now she is among 31 female constables stationed to the South Bengal Frontier, policing the Indo-Bangladesh border, which passes through heavily populated villages that contribute to a steady movement of people and goods, much of it illegal. Vikash Chandra, deputy inspector general of the South Bengal Frontier, says that economic migrants and trans-border criminals are also joined by fundamentalist and terrorist actors from Pakistan.

Because men are frequently apprehended by the security personnel, especially when security was heightened after the November 2008 terrorist attacks in Mumbai, women are being increasingly used for smuggling goods and fake currency notes. In 2009, 147 women were held for smuggling fake Indian currency across the border, which helps explain the presence of the female border security forces.

Women's eNews recently interviewed about a dozen of them to find out about their work and how they liked it.

Day Begins at 4 a.m.

Their days begin at 4 a.m. and they report to their posts with their rifles ready at 5.30 a.m. There are two shifts: 6 a.m. to noon and noon to 6 p.m.

So far, the women are not posted on night duty, although they can be woken in case of an emergency to help check any women who have been apprehended.

Their work entails inspecting women who want to cross the border and looking out for any trying to steal their way across. The combat part of the job surfaces when a woman flees, requiring them to pursue and physically apprehend her. They can also retaliate if the Bangladesh Border Patrol, on the other side of the border, opens fire.

New recruit Shrabanti Haldar, 22, said since she started the work in September, she has discovered a Bangladeshi woman trying to smuggle out Phensidyl, a popular intoxicant. "She had the bottles strapped to her thighs and it required women to frisk her and have her strip," she said.

Haldar also found another woman trying to smuggle saris by wearing a number of them on top of each other.

Once they apprehend such women, the security forces take them to senior staff in border security. They in turn deliver them to local police or border customs officials.

Putul Murmu, another female constable, described apprehending a mother-daughter duo from Bangladesh who were trying to cross into India without valid documents.

Crime Tied to Poverty

Many of the women who engage in such smuggling and criminal activities are extremely poor.

But Haldar, the daughter of a carpenter and the eldest of three sisters, said she had no sympathy for the women they stopped.

"No, not at all," she said, her eyes hardening. "Many of us have had hard lives, but we have been law-abiding."

A recent government report found more than 10 million Bangladeshi migrants live illegally in India and many get there by finding their way across this border.

Counterfeit Indian currency is printed in Bangladesh and smuggled into India. Smuggled goods from India, including cattle, flow in the opposite direction.

Advocacy groups here also find the Indo-Bangladesh border rife with human traffickers who smuggle Bangladeshi children, many of them girls, along a route through India and often on to Middle Eastern countries.

Chakla said she applied for the dangerous, nontraditional work "for the challenge of it."The pay package--about $280 a month on top of accommodation, food, health care, etc.--was also alluring.

Chakla said she got the idea when she saw a male cousin prepare for a border security posting. "He tried hard but failed," she said, referring to the written test required for the posting. "But I was by his side during his trials and I got interested. He told me when the BSF advertised for female recruits and I got interested. My cousin helped me out with the application."

Family Resistance a Challenge

Chakla, a native of the district of Midnapore in West Bengal state, said her mother was doubtful about the job but she was encouraged by her father, a farmer, as well as her cousin.

Murmu, 22, the daughter of a railway staffer, had a harder time overcoming her family's resistance. Once she cleared that hurdle she faced the problem of surviving the fitness test and training period.

In the fitness test, the women have to run a distance of 800 meters within four minutes, complete a 3-foot high jump and a 9-foot long jump.

During their training they have to learn to shoot a rifle, achieve a running speed of 3.2 kilometers in 17 minutes and jump over 9-feet long ditches, among other feats. An oral exam and medical tests follow.

The work, Haldar says, is "thrilling" and reminds her of a popular TV show about Kiran Bedi, a policewoman.

"Bedi had been my ideal and I wanted to be like her. Since childhood I had wanted to do something for my county," she said. "This is a great opportunity to serve my country."

Aditi Bhaduri is a gender consultant and a journalist based in Kolkata and New Delhi.

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Commentary : The Coming False-Flag Terror Trap For India

by Feroze Mithiborwala

Over the course of the last two days, the matter of the Military & strategic involvement of the Indian forces in Afghanistan is getting all the more clearer. As we have consistently stated, the strategic objective that propelled the Mumbai 26/11 false flag terror attack was to prepare the consensus amongst the Indian people, whereby our pro-US/Israel political elite, would be free to deploy our Military into the war theatre in Afghanistan. In the last few days, we have been witness to high profile visits from both Richard Holbrooke (Special Envoy, Af-Pak Region) & Defence Secretary, Robert Gates, accompanied by shrill warnings from 'Western Sources' of another terror attack that was imminent.

Consider the following news reports.

1) Holbrooke all praise for India (DNA, 19/01/10).

Apart from welcoming India's deepening role in the US strategic gameplan, he stated that "India is an important participant in search for peace & stability, not only in South Asia but throughout the vast region that stretches from the Mediterranean to the Pacific."

Richard Holbrooke who is the Obama appointee for the 'Af-Pak' region (a miscontrued term, as is the policy), was visiting Delhi. Holbrooke is a Right-wing Democrat, who oversaw the Balkanization of Yugoslavia. Amongst his best friends, he includes John Negroponte, who is the most despised man across all of South America.

2) Forward, Together by Robert Gates (TOI, 19/01/10).

Secretary of Defence, Robert Gates is due to visit New Delhi & prior to that, his article appeared in the Times of India on the editorial page.

He carries along similar lines as Holbrooke & further states that, "At the same time, the security threats & challenges of the 21st century present new opportunities for our nations & militaries to work together in unprecedented ways" (emphasis mine).

"India can be a net provider of security in the Indian Ocean & beyond - making valuable contributions to stability operations across the globe. In many respects, that belief is at the heart of the 2005 Defence Framewok Agreement, which, five years in, has amply demonstrated how much our countries have to gain from a long-term, reliable defence agreement".

"One of the great successes in recent years has been the increase in the number & complexity of joint training exercises between our militaries."

Both Holbrooke & Gates further wax eloquent on the fact that since the Indian military is increasingly using US Military hardware, there is a greater degree of 'interoperability'.

3) US analysts warn of Pak terror attack on India. (Hindustan Times, 19/01/10).

This warning has emanated from none other than the Council for Foreign Relations (CFR), which is the premier US institution that determines US foreign policy. It is also the stronghold of the NeoCons & the Zionists.

The story states that, "A leading American think-tank has warned that as the Al Qaeda comes under pressure in it's havens along the Af-Pak border, it may attempt to counter that by masterminding major terrorist strikes against India.

Do note that General James Jones, who is the National Security Advisor to Obama, has stated in the US Congress that the Al Qaeda are barely a hundred in number. This statement was never reported in the corporate media. Just imagine, a 100,000 US troops to flush out less than a 100 Al Qaeda.

'The Audacity of Lies' is the title of the Presidential biography, I would suggest, after he is booted out by the American People.

The Council for Foreign Relations' Centre for Preventive Action said in it's Contingency Planning Memorandum: "India faces the real prospect of another major terrorist attack by Pakistan-based terrorist organizations in the near future".

The report was prepared by Daniel Markey in his latest paper 'Terrorism and Indo-Pakistani Escalation', & is supposedly an expert on South Asia, though to me he appears to be a hawkish Zionist.

The report also appeared in the Indian Express website & the headline stated, 'India faces threat of another 26/11, likely to act militarily'.

Do recall that, K Subrahmanyam, the leading hawkish US asset & 'strategic expert' has written two articles that appeared after the 26/11 false flag terror attack & the other after Obama's urge to surge. K Subhramanyam appealed for the deployment of Indian troops into the Afghan war. (The articles appeared in the Times of India & the Indian Express).

K Subrahmanyam does mirror the hawkish inclinations of a section of the Indian elite & was one of the main writers that created the consensual manipulation that lead to the finalization of the Indo-US Nuclear Deal, which was less about the energy component & was basically a military-strategic alliance.

We, the People of South Asia have very little time, before our citizens are sacrificed as cannon fodder on the altar of Imperialism & Zionism. The only way is to "expose the politics of terror". The Mumbai 26/11 false flag terror attack was not only an attack on India, but on all of South Asia. Another false flag terror attack will be used by the pro-US Indian elite to mobilise hundreds of thousands of youth to go to war in Afghanistan, maybe even Pakistan & Iran. Indian soldiers have been used in the past by the British Colonial power to fight their wars across the world, especially in Middle East & North Africa. Once more the US Empire seeks to use our People.

It is clear that the US, or rather Obama, cannot win the war in Afghanistan, even stabilise the land & thus they are increasingly desperate. The only country that can provide them with the human power in the region is India & thus we have to awaken the Indian & the South Asian People to this Imperial-Zionist strategy of induced false-flag terror attacks, that then lead to further wars that only seek to serve the Empire.

The US war, is not our war. They will seek to make it our war & for that they will stage false-flag terror attacks.

Thus a pan-South Asian struggle against Imperialism & Zionism is the need of the hour. A South Asia free of the US-European & Israeli Imperialists is the need of the hour & is our patriotic calling.

I will sign of with one of the most analytical & forthright replies to the Daniel Markey story (attached) that appeared in the Indian Express on Jan 16, 2010.

"26/11 too was staged by the Israeli Lobby working in India" by Sujit Sehgel, Rted. Army Officer (on 17 Jan 2010)
Doesn't the following says it all: 1) To eliminate any doubt on the Israeli, the Zionist themselves show-cased to be innocent having themselves attacked in Nariman House. 2) A US Spy was killed in 26/11. 3) India's John O'Neill, Hemant Karkare,was cleverly eliminated.. 4) -Kasab tells about meeting Headly & the Judge quickly diverts his story (Headly is actually a US double agent. When FBI saw that he will be caught, FBI themselves caught him in USA so that they can silence him before USA's name in the dirty game is exposed) 5)- 26/11 had the signature of western-trained operatives: commandos arrival quietly by dinghy to shore, quickly mobilizing to urban terrain, navigating & communicating with high-tech sys is a specific skill taught by Navy elite to Marines, CIA spec ops(aka SOG).You can even play this as Tom Clancy's "Rainbow Six" video game. Hence no doubt Israelis are planning next 26/11 & this time using Military. Aren't they deep into our Military teaching them 'skills' for years.

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Analysis: The ‘India Factor’ in relations with -Bangladesh

Taj Hashmi

An understanding of the 'India Factor' is essential for figuring out what went right or wrong in the recently signed Hasina-Manmohan MOU; and as to why Bangladeshis are again so polarised on the MOU. While pro-Awami Leaguers are gaga about the understanding between the two prime ministers, anti-Awami Leaguers, mainly BNP-Jamaat supporters, simply consider the deal a 'total sell-off to India'. For the right or wrong reasons, the Awami League is called 'pro-Indian' and BNP 'pro-Pakistani', or as some people ridicule it as 'Bangladesh-Now-Pakistan'. I bring in a personal anecdote to explain the prevalent 'tribalism' in the polity of Bangladesh, which is not helpful in understanding domestic and international issues Bangladesh needs to resolve.

Recently one passionately loyal Awami League supporter abruptly asked me at a party in Honolulu, "Do you believe in Greater Bengal?" Before I could say 'yes' or 'no', the apparently urbane Bangladeshi-American wife of an American diplomat came to the absurd conclusion: "O, you are BNP; you won't support Greater Bengal." Instead of telling her off to spoil the party, I simply told her I belonged to none of the parties in Bangladesh. This artlessness reminds us of George W Bush's now infamous quote, "You're either with us or against us."

At times rabidly loyal Awami supporters convey the wrong message to the detriment of their country, party and leader. Not only anti-Awami Leaguers consider the party "pro-Indian", but some immoderate supporters of the party unwittingly also give similar impression about their party. BNP supporters on the other hand, knowingly or unknowingly, give the impression that they prefer Pakistan to India, if not to Bangladesh.

In view of the widening gap between the pro- and anti-Awami Leaguers over the vague MOU, it seems the not-so- insightful Awami leaders either do not understand the "India Factor" in South Asian politics or are too eager to appease India and its overseas sponsors. Although the west has been traditionally enamoured by Indian religion, art and culture, and of late by its "secular democracy", market economy and economic growth; its neighbours in the Asia-Pacific and Muslim World are nervous about the ascending Indian behemoth.

Bangladesh should have given a second thought about the dire consequences of unilaterally giving so many concessions to India. Sheikh Hasina should have understood the implications of not addressing some pressing bilateral issues, such as the problematic Farakka Barrage; the proposed Tipaimukh Dam; the disputed Talpatti Island and corridor for Bangladeshi enclaves in India.

The MOU should have also resolved once for all the so-called 'push-back' of 'illegals' into Bangladesh from India and the presence of anti-Bangladesh militants in India who demand the so-called Swadhin Banga Bhumi to carve out Bangladeshi territory for Hindu refugees/immigrants from East Pakistan, presently living in India. We simply cannot believe the way PM Hasina defended her not raising the Tipaimukh issue with her Indian counterpart. She assured her people on the assurance of the Indian PM that 'no harm' would come to Bangladesh through Tipaimukh. She has turned us speechless by admitting that she personally does not know anything about Tipaimukh Dam; whether it is an irrigation barrage or a hydro-electric dam, she is not sure about it. If this is diplomacy to protect one's own country's interests from a traditionally unreliable neighbour like India, then Bangladeshis have reasons to be more reliant on God!

India's hegemonic behaviour in the past and its not-so-benign design to emerge as the new hegemon in the Indian Ocean are least acceptable to China, Pakistan, Myanmar, Indonesia and even Australia. The average Bangladeshi has tremendous misgivings about India as well. Keeping in view its long-term security interests, Bangladesh should not throw itself into the Indian orbit. Whatever one has managed to grasp from the MOU, it seems Bangladesh has unilaterally granted India access to its ports and an unimpeded transit to Indian goods and possibly soldiers to contain its rebellious North-East. It is not clear from the MOU if India is willing to give Nepal and Bhutan transit facilities to Chittagong and Mongla ports.

The Awami leadership seems to be too complacent and naïve to understand that what India might get away with, Bangladesh can ill-afford it. India might gain some leverage and respectability in the West by coming closer to America and Israel. Muslim-majority Bangladesh has more to lose than gain by coming too close for comfort to India; and to Israel via India.

Conversely, while the West is enthusiastic about India, it is at most lukewarm towards forging ties with economically and militarily insignificant Bangladesh. Consequently Bangladesh's alienating China and its regional allies by almost giving a blank cheque to India seems to be an ill wind that blows nobody good. Bangladesh is oblivious of the fact that India, by strictly adhering to Chanakya's advice, has hardly been friendly and helpful to any of its immediate neighbours (excepting tiny Maldives). On the same token, India may be the only country in the world having bad to very bad relations with all its immediate neighbours. In view of this stark reality, one is not sure if India will behave differently this time with Bangladesh.

One wonders as to why Sheikh Hasina and the admirers of her latest 'gesture of good will' towards India are not cognisant of the 'India Doctrine' at all. Cultivated assiduously by most Indian leaders from Nehru to Manmohan Singh (V P Singh and I K Gujral were possibly the only exceptions in this regard), this doctrine stands for two things:

a) establishing Vrihat Bharat (Greater India) with a view to asserting Indian hegemony in the Indian Ocean and b) to extract maximum economic benefits and political leverage from smaller neighbours by intimidating them on a regular basis.

As the act of not recalling Nehru's not-so-hidden desire to undo the Partition of 1947 is a political blunder, particularly for Pakistan and Bangladesh; so is forgetting about India's annexation of Kashmir (1947), Hyderabad (1948), Goa (1961) and even independent Sikkim (1975).

Bangladeshis' remaining grateful to India for the creation of their country is one thing; their paying no attention to India's unmistakably meddlesome approach towards their country is altogether a different matter. Bangladesh should not forget about India's harbouring, training and arming LTTE fighters to disintegrate Sri Lanka; arm twisting Nepal for befriending China; denying Bhutan the right to have formal diplomatic relations with China; and last but not least, promoting insurgencies in Pakistan through its missions in Afghanistan. Bangladesh has every reason to keep in mind India's direct involvement in the creation and promotion of Bangladeshi dissidents and criminals on both sides of the border since 1975. One may especially mention the separatist Shanti Bahini, nurtured by India for more than two decades up to 1996.

One cannot believe the way the government and its supporters are defending the MOU, which reflects the inept and clumsy handling of the bumpy Indo-Bangladesh relationship by the Bangladeshi team. Ignoring the global and regional implications of the 'India Doctrine' and the omnipresent 'India Factor' in Bangladesh politics amounts to abandoning the basic lessons of diplomacy. Bangladesh should pay heed to Reagan's "Trust, but verify" approach to the Soviet Union, in regard to its relation with India. To succeed politically, politicians here must learn how to play the 'India Card' to manage the 'India Factor', which is a life-blood for Awami League's main adversaries — the BNP, Islamists and some leftist groups and parties.

Politics, to a great extent is all about people's perceptions. If the average Bangladeshis continue to perceive the Awami League as "pro-Indian" (as many do), the Hasina Government will have difficulties in imposing a ban on religion-based politics and trying the War Criminals of 1971. Realpolitik or pragmatism demands that Bangladesh remain steadfast to the principle of positive neutrality. Putting all its eggs into the not-so-safe Indian basket might be too costly for not-so-rich and not self-reliant Bangladesh in the long run. As giving fillip to 'Islam-loving' parties is counter-productive, so is antagonising China and the Muslim World by coming so close to India, which has found new allies in the US and Israel.

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Commentary: Hasina's India visit

Rashed Ahmed

The British had thanked their stars that in India they had the Hindus and the Muslims who did not require them to fire a single shot to keep India in tutelage for 200 years. They just divided the two and ruled because the Hindus and the Muslims were too preoccupied with fighting each other to fight the British. The Indians are now thanking their stars that in Bangladesh we have the Awami League and the BNP. Our two mainstream parties are ensuring that India can have from Bangladesh what they want without having to reciprocate as the two parties are too busy with each other to deal with the Indians as a common front.

On her recent visit, the prime minister has given India the freedom to track and take into custody their insurgents who, were using the country as sanctuary and making life hell for the Indian security. In fact, Sheikh Hasina very much demonstrated her government's total support for Indian security needs when she allowed Indian security to take into custody with 'cooperation' of the Bangladesh security the top insurgents of ULFA including their chief before going to India on her visit. Bangladesh home minister however lied publicly that the Government of Bangladesh had nothing to do with the ULFA arrests! ULFA Chief Rajkhowa, when produced in the Assam court, told journalists that he has been ' betrayed' by Bangladesh.
   
The Indian media went gaga over Bangladesh's action and said that Bangladesh should ask from India anything for meeting Indian security concerns 100 per cent. Bangladesh spared India from paying a price for its total commitment to meet Indian security needs as it was probably 'shy' to admit what it has done for India probably for fear that the BNP would accuse it of handing to India those who were fighting for their right of self determination. The lying by the government on the ULFA arrests together with the three security related agreements signed has given enough reason to suspect that during the visit of Sheikh Hasina, matters have been decided on security that has been kept out of public knowledge.

It is not just on security that Bangladesh has proven its friendship towards India. In the Joint Declaration, Bangladesh committed itself to support India for a seat in an expanded Security Council! I am not sure whether this point has been explained as to what it means. When India becomes a permanent member of the UN Security Council, all regional matters in South Asia requiring UN attention would be left to India to decide. The possibility of India becoming a permanent UN Security Council member, with its long history of being the regional bully, is too nightmarish even to contemplate. With China and India relations now sliding, our support for India would not be taken very happily by China whose support we need for so many reasons. China is a superpower and soon may even overtake the US as the number one economic power in the world. We have over the last three decades built painstakingly special relations with China. We have annoyed China, during the BNP era with the Taiwan Trade Office, then under this government by naming the China Friendship Convention Centre built with millions of US $ gifted by China after Sheikh Mujib without even discussing the matter with China. Now where there was no necessity of putting the matter of support in the document, we have chosen to do it, something that even Bhutan over India has so much influence, would perhaps refuse to do. For its 'friendly' gestures, Bangladesh has been promised US $ 1 billion and 250 MV of electricity. The money will be spent on projects to serve Indian interests as it is not a grant but a credit line. The electricity will be given, if it is eventually, as a commercial purchase. On key issues of water sharing; maritime boundary and trade imbalance, the visit did nothing to further Bangladesh's interests.
 
The foreign minister has taken upon herself the task of a salesperson. She is articulate but she is manifesting her immaturity in the case she is handling. It appears from her articulation that all of a sudden the Indians have become extremely friendly towards Bangladesh and that all these years, relations have not moved forward because of Bangladesh and its intransigence. Some former diplomats have joined her bandwagon to spread the news that the perception that most Bangladeshis have held over so many years of India being an unfriendly neighbour is wrong. It only needed our Dipu Moni to show us that we have thought of a friendly India all these years as a bully is incorrect and it is in our interest we correct our mindset and take India as a friendly neighbour who always has Bangladesh's interest and welfare at its heart.
 
For a party that sees in Sheikh Mujib as the greatest Bangladeshi past, present and future included, Dipu Moni should ask herself why the Father of the Nation rejected the first file that was brought to him by Tajuddin Ahmed in which there was a proposal of bringing from India over two thousand civil servants, including police, after he had returned from incarceration in Pakistan in 1972. There are instances galore in the conduct of our bilateral relations with India that has recorded for posterity that India cannot be trusted. It is a matter of great curiosity what has happened during this visit to cast this spell to lead the AL and its supporters to suddenly realise that the Indians are saintly and that we are the ones at fault for our relations with India so far not being heavenly.


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BdOsint Recommended Readings - 01/07/10

FLASH: ULFA Threatens to Attack Bangladeshi Immigrants

There are many Bangladeshi migrants in Assam

The leading separatist group in India's north-eastern state of Assam has threatened to attack "illegal migrants" from Bangladesh. The announcement by the United Liberation Front of Assam (Ulfa) came days after its top leaders were detained in Dhaka and handed to India. Ulfa rebels have attacked settlers of Bengali origin, including leaders of minority groups, in the past. They have fought for a separate Assamese homeland since 1979. "I appeal to the people of Assam to free all our lands occupied by the illegal migrants from Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan. If these illegals resist, they will be attacked," said Paresh Barua, the military wing chief of Ulfa in an e-mailed message to the media. Mr Barua warned of a series of attacks on vital installations and security forces all across Assam, and said that those who kill Ulfa members will face "dire consequences".Now that Bangladesh's Awami League-led government has cracked down on Ulfa rebels and handed over several of its top leaders to India, the rebel outfit is once again threatening to target migrants from Bangladesh. Analysts say this stance against illegal migration - a perennially important issue in Assam - may also be a move on the part of the rebels to regain popularity.  '......................Read More

Also read BdOsint Special Report: Arrest of ULFA Chairman Rajkhowa and Implications for Bangladesh dated 12/03/09

BANGLADESH: Bangladesh okays Bharti Airtel's Warid stake buy

Bangladesh's telecoms authority approved an initial investment of $300 million by Bharti Airtel (BRTI.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) in No. 4 Bangladesh mobile company Warid Telecom, with the leading Indian telecoms firm expected to pay more later. Bangladesh's Daily Star newspaper last month reported the final deal could be worth $900 million, citing officials at Warid, which is controlled by Abu Dhabi Group. Bharti's expansion would give the Indian phone leader access to Bangladesh's rapidly growing mobile sector at a time when it is locked in an intense price war in India with rivals Reliance Communications (RLCM.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) and Vodafone Essar (VOD.L: Quote, Profile, Research). "We've asked Warid to submit schedule of the Bharti's $300 million initial investment plan within 30 days," Ahsan Habib, director general of Bangladesh's telecom regulator, told Reuters on Tuesday.............Read More

BANGLADESH:  Bangladesh plans 3G licence auction at year-end

The Bangladesh Telecommunications and Regulatory Commission (BTRC) will run a 3G licence auction this year hoping to attract billions of dollars of investment. The regulator is currently finalising guidelines for 3G licensing and expects the guidelines to be finished in June this year, news agency AFP reports citing BTRC chairman Zia Ahmed. The regulator plans to auction off at least four bandwidth slots at an open auction by year-end. Several telecommunications operators already expressed an interested, one which is rumoured to be Vodafone...............Read More

BANGLADESH:  India may invest in Bangladesh's 2,600 MW power projects

Bangladesh is seeking Indian investment for its two power plants of 1,300 MW power plant each and transmission link between the two countries. An agreement to fund to the power projects is likely to be signed during the forthcoming visit of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh Power Development Board Chairman A S M Alamgir Kabir told PTI here on the sideline of the 3rd Japan-SAARC Energy Symposium. "We have planned to set up two coal-fired power generation plants in Bangladesh. The energy agreement between the two countries would pave way for India's investment in these power plants," he said............Read More

BANGLADESH: Dhaka, Yangon to talk sea limits

Bangladesh and Myanmar officials will sit on Friday for two-day talks on maritime boundary demarcation. This is first such meeting since Bangladesh in October last year turned to the UN tribunal for resolving the dispute over water territory in the Bay of Bengal with Myanmar and India. Myanmar deputy foreign minister (foreign secretary) Maung Myint will lead his country's delegation while additional foreign secretary Md Khurshed Alam will head Bangladesh side at the talks in Chittagong. "The bilateral negotiation with our neighbours will continue though we have gone to the UN tribunal for settling the maritime disputes," a senior foreign ministry official told bdnews24.com. He said Myanmar now shows "very positive" attitude to resolve the maritime disputes with Bangladesh..............Read More

BANGLADESH: Intelligence agencies fear massive unrest: Pressure for wage refixation of RMG workers mounting

Some intelligence agencies of the government have asked for the constitution of a committee to review the demands raised by different labour organisations for wage hike of garment workers. The recommendation has been made in view of some ongoing campaigns for enhancement of pay and benefits of garment workers who have been agitating for wage hike. Several labour leaders yesterday told this correspondent that they are planning to go for some tougher programmes to press home their demands. Unified agitation programme across the country, especially in garment zones like Gazipur, Savar, Tongi, Naraynganj and Chittagong, will begin by early February to realise their demands, they said. Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI) in a recent report to the government and authorities concerned has suggested formation of a commission to fix the lowest wages for workers of readymade garment industry. It also suggested activating the committee which was formed to review the possibility of allowing trade union in the RMG factories...............Read More

BANGLADESH: Any Constitution deleting Islam not acceptable: Ershad

Jatiya Party Chairman Hussain Muhammad Ershad yesterday said that any amendment to the constitution deleting 'Bismillah' and removing Islam as state religion would not be acceptable. "We are frequently hearing about restoration of the 1972 constitution. Yes, we will accept it if Bismillah and Islam as state religion are retained intact. Otherwise, people will not accept it," he said. Ershad was addressing a grand rally at Paltan Maidan in the city marking the 24th founding anniversary of Jatiya Party. Huge arrangements were made to bring supporters and activists of the party to the rally from different parts of the country.. Jatiya Party Chairman Hussain Muhammad Ershad yesterday said that any amendment to the constitution deleting 'Bismillah' and removing Islam as state religion would not be acceptable. The former military dictator in his 40 minutes speech praised the erstwhile army-backed government, sharply criticised the activities of former BNP-Jamaat government and termed the present government as striving hard for well-being of the nation..................Read More

INDIA: Look to our near east

For her part, Hasina has done all the right things — offered substantive counter-terror cooperation, opened the door for trans-border power trading, and allowed Bharti Airtel to pick a stake in Warid Telecom of Bangladesh. All this is refreshingly good news from Dhaka. What is India giving in return? There is speculation that Delhi is planning to announce a $500 million credit line for infrastructure development in Bangladesh. India is also reportedly working on new water sharing arrangements and other deliverables during Hasina's visit. Money is indeed important; but it does not buy love. Looking beyond monetary assistance, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh should use the opportunity to change the psychological dynamic that had prevented cooperation between the two countries in the past even when their best national interests demanded it. If we can break through that political barrier, the sky may be the limit for what Delhi and Dhaka can do together. The Hasina government in Dhaka promises that long elusive breakthrough. It is up to India now to seize the moment. If Delhi wants to engineer a real paradigm shift in our relations with Dhaka, it must articulate four important principles that will guide its strategy towards Bangladesh. ................Read More

INDIA:  Bangladesh, India to sign six deals during Hasina's visit

India and Bangladesh are expected to sign at least six deals during Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's visit to New Delhi from January 10, including on cooperation on cross-border terrorism and exchange of convicted criminals, officials said here today. Senior government officials familiar with the talks said Dhaka expected the MoUs to be inked during the premier's upcoming tour, her first official visit to India since coming to power last year, but added that the summit-level talks could yield more deals which could not be predicted. A foreign ministry source listed the issues for the proposed deals as cooperation on cross-border militancy or terrorism, Indian credit assistance for railway and communication sector development, cooperation on cross-border crime and exchange of convicted criminals, power swap and cooperation on standardisation. He said sharing of waters in common rivers and particularly in the Teesta, trade gap issue, bilateral and regional connectivity or transit and proposed "frontier bazaar" were other major issues to come up during the talks...........Read More

INDIA: MoD cancels contract for mid-air refuelling aircraft

The Indian Air Force (IAF) will have to wait at least five more years to get a new fleet of mid-air refueling aircraft with the Ministry of Defence canceling an ongoing contract that had led to the selection of the European Airbus 330 MRTT aircraft. As first reported by The Indian Express, the contract had been put on hold in September last year after the Finance Ministry questioned the need to purchase a new fleet of tankers other than the IL 78s already in service and raised objections to the high price of the European aircraft. The cancellation of the contract has come as a major blow to European consortium EADS which was very close to bagging the estimated $ 2 billion deal to supply six refueling aircraft for the Air Force...................Read More

Commentary: Strengthening ties with Bangladesh

Sections of the Bangladesh army and its intelligence apparatus have been traditionally anti-Indian and supportive of the BNP and JeI. There appears to have been some change in this mindset in the aftermath of the BDR mutiny. New Delhi would be well advised to strengthen military ties with Bangladesh and encourage a greater participation of Bangladesh military in international peace keeping, which will encourage them to avoid Bonapartist ambitions. Experience shows that the political mood in Bangladesh can be volatile and one could well see a return to the BNP order if Sheikh Hasina falters and cannot fulfil growing aspirations. India should demonstrate that while it will assist in the progress and welfare of the people of Bangladesh, rulers in Bangladesh who show sensitivity for Indian concerns can and will receive Indian goodwill, in return...............Read More

ASSAM: Paresh Baruah lists ULFA targets

The United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) today announced its "targets" in the coming years and asserted that the outfit would not indulge in blasts in public places. In a release e- mailed to the media, the Commander-in-Chief of the ULFA, Paresh Baruah said that all the forces of India including the BSF, Assam Rifles, ITBP, CRPF, SSB, Border Roads Organization etc would be the main targets of the outfit in the coming days and the Assam Police personnel, who indulged in killings of members of the ULFA and indigenous people of Assam would be targeted.The ULFA C-in-C said that the intellectuals, who support India' cause would first be warned and then would be targeted and the places of exploitation of India would be targeted. He said that the informers of the occupational forces would face punishment andthe outfit has decided to go for strong action against the corrupt officials and the officials who amassed wealth by depriving the common people of Assam. ..................Read More

ASSAM: Assam sounds alert after ULFA threat

An alert was sounded in Assam a day after the outlawed United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) threatened to attack security forces and vital installations in the state ahead of Republic Day celebrations Jan 26, officials said. "We have already asked our security forces to be alert and extra vigilant," Assam police chief Shankar Baruah told journalists here Thursday. Self-styled ULFA commander-in-chief Paresh Baruah Wednesday threatened to target security forces and vital installations in the state. The rebel leader also threatened action against 'intellectuals' who are opposed to ULFA. The ULFA and other militant groups in Assam and other parts of the northeast are known to step up violent acts ahead of national celebrations like Republic Day and Independence Day.................Read More

ANALYSIS:China's 'Third Island' Strategy

More specifically, China is likely to resort to a greater number of nuclear-powered submarine patrols in the Lumbok and Sunda straits, as well as the northern Indian Ocean, to demonstrate what it calls a "punishment strategy" for nations making contingency plans to interdict Chinese energy supplies. The Chinese may also be looking to station SU-30 MKK attack fighter jets in Burmese bases such as Ann and Sittwe to extend an airborne strike umbrella over the channel. Despite the military posturing around the "third island chain," some observers feel that the Chinese string of pearls located further afield in places such as Hambantota (Sri Lanka), Chittagong (Bangladesh), Gwadar (Pakistan) and Mukkala (Yemen) will remain essentially commercial ventures. By this logic, China is hoping that substantive economic relations with Indian Ocean littoral states will weave a "soft-power web" around India, making it politically costly for India to take military action against Chinese interests in the Indian Ocean. However, India is naturally wary of such moves, which perhaps explains why it refused to give China either observer or associate member status in the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium. That 33-member grouping of Indian Ocean littoral states, started by India, seeks to evolve a common security agenda for member states in the seas that wash their shores.................Read More

PAKISTAN: Time to pull out the dragon's teeth

In the ancient Greek myth, when Jason and the Argonauts are on their quest to find the golden fleece, one of the more terrifying dangers they face comes from the "dragon's teeth". These objects, when planted in the ground, cause fierce warriors called spertoi to spring forth. I was reminded of this bit of Greek mythology as I was reading Imtiaz Gul's extremely well-researched book The Al Qaeda Connection. The author meticulously lists all the various extremist outfits that kill under the banner of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), as well as other equally lethal groups who slaughter the innocent in the name of Islam. He also gives us thumbnail sketches of various warlords who run these gangs. Ploughing through these details, I wondered how this hydra-headed monster - to bring in another Greek legend - could ever be laid to rest. The reality is that as soon as one of these killers is eliminated, more spring forward to replace them. After Baitullah Mehsud, the vicious leader of the TTP, was finally killed in a drone attack, many Pakistanis breathed a sigh of relief. But almost immediately Hakeemullah Mehsud took over, and has been directing a ferocious series of suicide attacks across the country. The latest atrocity on Ashura in Karachi that killed a number of Shia mourners shows that it is impossible to stop such attacks aimed at soft targets. The TTP was quick to claim responsibility for the Karachi attack, as it has done for a number of others. The question of who is funding these killers remains a mystery, although Imtiaz Gul has tried to unravel it in his book. While Saudi funding of extremist groups like the virulently anti-Shia Sipah-e-Sahaba was an open secret, apparently direct government financing from Riyadh ceased after 9/11............................Read More

FALSE FLAG ATTACKS: White House Probes Mole Network Behind Flt 595 Terror

Officials in the Obama White House are considering the possibility that the Christmas day attempt by Nigerian terrorist Umar Farouk Mutallab to blow up an airliner about to land in Detroit was deliberately and intentionally facilitated by unnamed networks inside the US intelligence community. This was the gist of a report by Richard Wolf delivered in this evening's edition of cable network MSNBC's Countdown program, hosted by Keith Olbermann. This report comes on the eve of a special White House interagency conference convoked by Obama to deal with the massive systemic failure of US intelligence in allowing the Yemen alumnus Mutallab to board the Amsterdam to Detroit flight while allegedly carrying a PETN explosive device on his person.  Wolf attributed his account to top officials in the Obama White House. The intentional sabotage of US antiterrorist screening procedures would explain why Mutallab had been able to use his US visa, escape interrogation and special searches, and board his flight, even though he was festooned with every red flag in the annals of airport security. If Wolf's report is accurate, these Obama officials may be pulling on a thread which could begin to unravel the entire secret structure of illegitimate power which has afflicted this country -- in this case, the apparatus which manufactures terrorist incidents for political purposes of mass manipulation, dictatorship, and war. .........................Read More