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Tuesday, 2 December 2008

Mumbai Mayhem: Open Source Intelligence Intercepts

  • Coup by India's Hindutva Extreme Right Wing : The big winner in all this confusion is, not surprisingly, the far right wing of the Indian government, it's BJP. And elections in India are coming soon. A lot of hay will be made of these attacks in Mumbai prior to these elections, so all stories coming out of South Asia blaming Pakistan for the Mumbai attacks are to be analyzed especially critically. What is definitely becoming clear is that Mumbai had been under terrorist alert, thanks to the work of its now-assassinated terrorism chief. The alert came down one week prior to the assault and Mumbai's now dead and dubiously astute anti-terrorism chief was ambushed -- not shot during a counter-terror operation at one of the hotels or the train station as had been reported -- and shot in the chest a number of times.
  • Attackers 'high' on Cocaine and LSD : The terrorists who struck prominent targets in Mumbai last week, killing 195 people and wounding a further 295, may have pumped themselves with cocaine and LSD to keep going during their murderous three-day rampage. Tests on the bodies of dead Islamic fanatics have revealed traces of stimulant drugs. One said: We found injections containing traces of cocaine and LSD left behind by the terrorists and later found drugs in their blood. There was also evidence of steroids, which isnt uncommon in terrorists. These men were all toned, suggesting they had been doing some heavy training for the attacks. This explains why they managed to battle the commandos for over 50 hours with no food or sleep.
  • No such thing as 'Deccan Mujahideen': Terrorist Qasab has told the investigators that they were from the banned group LeT. Qasab denied any knowledge of Deccan Mujahideen.
  • RAW warnings ignored: Details emerging suggest that the Indian Navy and Coast Guard may have failed to carry out their brief by ignoring an intercept from RAW warning of an attempt by Lashkar-e-Toiba to infiltrate a jihadi gang in Mumbai. The intercept, sent as recently as on November 19, said that a Lashkar-controlled ship had, with dangerous cargo, sailed from Karachi and could try to sneak into Indian waters. Navy sources angrily contested the claim of the country's external intelligence agency that alert naval patrols could have, if they had heeded the alert, prevented the marauders from striking Mumbai. "No intercept was passed on to us," a senior Navy officer angrily retorted when asked to comment on the charge. Sources in the agencies were unfazed by the angry denials from the Navy. "The fact remains that the terrorists sneaked into Mumbai through the sea, getting there unhindered after passing through hundreds of kilometres of Indian waters. Is this not what the Navy and the Coast Guard are paid to prevent?'' a top intelligence official said.
  • Inefficient handling of Crisis: "This is no way to fight terrorism. It is an amateurish, sluggish and feeble response" security expert Ajay Sahni of the Institute of Confilct Resolution in New Delhi said. "The NSG's poor reaction time to the emergency situation was due entirely to vacillation by the civilian bureaucracy" former Major General Sheru Thapliyal said. A national security crisis of this nature needs better handling, he added. The Indian Navy and Coast Guard also appear to have displayed criminal negligence, officials conceded.
  • FBI in Mumbai and Bureaucratic Hassles: A Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) team landed in Mumbai Sunday night. It has already surveyed the Taj Mahal Palace and Tower Hotel which, along with The Trident-Oberoi Hotel and Nariman House, was the scene of the almost 61-hour long operation to flush out the terrorists who had seized the three buildings. The FBI team is reported to have traced an e-mail sent to Lahore by the Deccan Mujahideen, a shadowy organization which has claimed responsibility for Wednesday night's terror attacks that injured at least 325. Besides the FBI, security teams from Israel and Britain are also in India to help investigation agencies here in unearthing the larger plot behind the Mumbai carnage. The FBI team was briefly detained at the Chattrapati Shivaji International Airport Sunday night after Customs officials refused to allow forensics equipment on board their aircraft on Indian soil, sources in Intelligence Bureau said. However, senior RAW officials said the team arrived here without providing prior lists of personnel and the specialised forensic equipment they were carrying. Since Customs officials in Mumbai had no idea what the FBI team was carrying, they were asked about this. Teams from the Scotland Yard and Israel are also expected.
  • Feeds from Israel: Yehud Barak said that it was his understanding that the perpetrators were Indians with "ties to neighboring countries". He said he believed some 30-40 men were involved in the attack, breaking up into seven or eight squads. In 1973, Barak led a commando squad into the heart of Beirut to kill Fatah leaders after landing by rubber boat from a mother ship, as did the Mumbai raiders last week. He said that during the fighting he had offered Indian officials "every assistance imaginable" but declined to give details.Israel has contingency plans for rescuing its hostages abroad. There have been suggestions that the center was targeted because of strengthening ties between India and Israel, including the sale by Israel of advanced military equipment. Since the assassination of the military chief of Hezbollah, Imad Mughinyeh, in Damascus last February, Israel has been braced for a major retaliation somewhere in the world. Several serious attempts have been foiled, say security officials, who offered no details. It is not clear if the attack on the Chabad center was linked to the Mughinyeh killing.
  • The Israeli government will not be able to provide security for Chabad houses in the Far East, the Foreign Ministry said on Monday. Officials there said that since Chabad is not an official Israeli organization, it cannot be treated differently from other Jewish organizations operating globally. However, the state would assist Chabad in coordinating security, which the movement would have to pay for.
  • Asian intelligence sources report that Chabad Houses are fronts for Israeli military intelligence and Mafia activities in other Asian cities. In Bangkok, Israeli military pilots and drivers who stay at the Chabad House there train Thai Army commandos, divers, and pilots who are fighting a Muslim secessionist movement along the southern border with Malaysia. Bangkok police have long suspected Chabad House as a center for the Israeli Mafia, which runs its Ecstasy and Ice trade from Bangkok for all of Southeast and East Asia. The Israeli Mafia also reportedly runs heroin labs in Myanmar, where an Israeli military officer serves in Myanmar's feared military counter-intelligence agency.
  • CIA Asset Dawood Ibrahim Connection: The Hindu nationalists often wave the 'Muslim terrorist' shirt to win popular support. In the past, Mumbai's exiled Muslim 'Mafia' boss, on-and-off again CIA asset Dawood Ibrahim, a veteran of the CIA's mujahedin war in Afghanistan and who is now living in exile in Karachi, Pakistan, and is wanted by Indian authorities, has the street muscle in Mumbai to stop further violence. Ibrahim owns a construction company in Karachi, has financial interests in Dubai, and is, according to our intelligence sources, involved with the CIA in Kathmandu casinos and the drug trade in Nepal. The CIA has shown no inclination to apprehend Ibrahim and with the Hindu nationalists making a power play in Mumbai with attempted 'false flag' attacks, Ibrahim has shown no desire to stop the violence. Ibrahim is likely sending a message to Washington and London to lay off or he may go beyond chopping the fingers off a few American and British tourists and businessmen. What may come next with regard to Americans and Britons in India may be even worse if Ibrahim decides to up the ante if he suspects the CIA is involved in double-crossing him. Ibrahim also wants to send a message to the BJP and the Indian intelligence Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) that he has sizable gang muscle in Mumbai to carry out further attacks to paralyze India's already-faltering economy. Ibrahim has struck Mumbai before.

  • The Drama: The entire drama seems to be well scripted like Bollywood/Hollywood movies. On one side they blame ISI for planning, executing the whole episode and on the other hand they blame ISI for committing silly mistakes and leaving behind incriminating evidence to be picked up by the Indian intelligence so it could find easy links to Karachi/Pakistan.

  • Sailing the terrorist off from Karachi. Why not Dubai, Chittagong or Eden for better deception?

  • Credit cards of Pakistani origin in their pockets. Do the suicide bombers carry the IDs in their pockets?

  • Their Pakistani Punjabi ascent. The first lesson given to intelligence operators is to adapt to local environments. If such an operation was planned by Pakistan and ISI, the operatives would have known that they would have to communicate/ negotiate with the hostages and others and hence would have concealed this giveaway sign.